Another Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) surge toward the Dateline in the equatorial Pacific the next 2 weeks could cause the onset of El Nino, warms the eastern U.S., and soaks the southern Great Plains and Mid-south States.

During the past week, rainfall required to end dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) increased in western Kansas, eastern Colorado, and southwest Texas while the remainder of the Great Plains drought area remain unchanged although shifting wetter in the Houston Area on the Texas Coast. The Mid-Atlantic drought worsened. Rainfall needed to end drought in northern Virginia/Washington D.C. is now in the 12-15 in. range.

Almost the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal in the subsurface (upper ocean heat) except to the immediate east of the Dateline. The warming during the past 2-3 weeks is dramatic with a big assist from the Madden Julian oscillation and an eastward surging Kelvin Wave. Despite the eastern equatorial Pacific subsurface warming, the bulk of the upper ocean heat remains west of the Dateline as ENSO 2023 is looking more complicated.

As mid-spring passes, drought potential for late spring and summer 2023 in the northern hemisphere becomes more in focus.