The 2018 Climate Impact Company North Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone outlook is issued. The next update will be available around June 1. The outlook projects 12 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes in 2018. The accumulated cyclone energy index forecast is 93. The outlook is slightly less active than the 30-year climatology and very similar to neutral ENSO climatology forecast for this season. The activity is considerably lower than last year. A transition from weak La Nina toward weak El Nino coupled with only near normal warmth of the ocean surface in the deep North Atlantic tropics are lead contributors to the forecast.

Partially related to La Nina but more so the unusual presence of cooler than normal waters east of Brazil connected to a cool upper atmospheric low pressure trough caused the wind field necessary to eliminate moist tropical air from reaching Argentina to ignite summertime showers leaving Argentina in a bad drought.

Top ENSO/IOD climate forecaster, The Bureau of Meteorology/Australia projects negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) to emerge during the Australian winter season likely bringing a wet climate for western and southern Australia relieving drought in the southeast.

Using multivariate ENSO index to analog the 2017-18 regime forward through 2018 and into early 2019 yields strong evidence that a weak El Nino is ahead for 2018. There are climate diagnostics present now to support this possibility.