12/30/2021, 3:58 pm EST

ECMWF Snowfall Forecasts in the East Through 10 Days

Inevitable is the evolution of a snowy pattern Central to Northeast U.S. given the large cold air source region in Western Canada to the North-central U.S. The clash of that cold with milder temperatures in the East means snow or rain-to-snow events from Kansas to New England in the 10-day outlook.
12/27/2021, 1:13 pm EST

NCEP CFS V2 Model Delays La Nina Dissipation Until JUN/JUL 2022

The NCEP CFS V2 forecast model delays La Nina dissipation until early summer 2021 (in the northern hemisphere). Previously, La Nina was forecast to dissipate by MAR/APR 2022.
12/22/2021, 8:36 am EST

Warm Winter 2021-22 U.S. HDD Forecast

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is exceptionally warm for winter 2021-22. The problem is the high energy demand Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States are generally quite mild this winter limiting heating demand in that region while other sectors such as the West and North-central States can be very cold. The impact of sensible weather is driven by population.
12/16/2021, 2:01 pm EST

Most Hurricane Force Gusts in One Day in U.S. History

According to NOAA, the U.S. set a record yesterday for most observed gusts >hurricane force (74 mph), just 5 days since the historic tornado outbreak on December 10th.  According to NOAA, more than 55 reports of gusts >74 mph were observed in Midwestern States. According to NOAA, the previous record was 53 reports set on August 10, 2020 (period of record 2004-2021).