Using a different approach to analog ENSO phase for 2024, Climate Impact Company takes a look at the peak ocean heat east of the Dateline late in the year of the ongoing El Nino compared to the loss of upper ocean heat as El Nino weakens the following February.

The tropical South Atlantic continues to observe record warm ocean temperatures. The influence on summer climate of the anomalous warmth was significant. Strong difluence in the upper atmosphere across the warm water zone represents anomalous convection (thunderstorm activity). To compensate for the rising air motion, an area of subsidence (sinking motion) over South America was observed during meteorological summer. The sensible weather result was drier and hotter than normal climate across much of Brazil. Of course, El Nino also enhanced this climate anomaly.

Another mild winter season across Europe as monthly heating degree day averages for West Europe were seasonably chilly in November and both West and East Europe in January while other months, especially February were prohibitively warm.

The February 2024 Australia soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals lack of widespread drought typical of an El Nino summer. Dry soils are present across parts of northern and southern portions of Western Australia while wet soils dominate elsewhere.