11/14/2022, 4:54 am EST

High Impact Weather to Develop Europe/Western Russia

The NAWH trough is extending eastward and will now produce another high impact weather regime across Western Europe…excessive rainfall! The GFS 15-day rainfall forecast indicates several in. of rain with high spots >5 in. for Western and Southern Europe for the second half of November. Farther downstream, a cold and snowy trough develops in Western Russia next week.
11/13/2022, 10:30 am EST

Remainder of November 2022 Wind and Solar Outlook

Remainder of November 2022 Outlook Wind Outlook Discussion: Moderate to high wind is forecast for the next several days across Northern California as strong high pressure extends from southern Canada to the Great Basin and forces gusty north and east wind into northern California (Fig. 1). Mid-to-late this week and into early next week lighter wind is expected. Later this month, arrival of a Pacific upper-level low-pressure trough will spawn a period of increasing westerly wind across northern California. In Southern California, wind power generation is “moderate” today and Wednesday, due to increasing easterlies (Fig. 2). After the short-term events, wind generation is weak for the remainder of November. Wind generation is not a problem across Texas for mid-to-late November as at least moderate risk is present most of the time (Fig. 3). A moderate southerly wind will develop for early this week across Texas followed by chilly northerlies Monday night. A cold burst (with moderate north wind) for mid-to-late week is likely. Return-flow southwesterlies early next week followed by another cool outbreak featuring gusty northerlies around Thanksgiving is expected in Texas. Fig. 1: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Northern California. Fig. 2: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Southern California. Fig. 3: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Texas. Solar Outlook Discussion: Near peak solar generation capability (for November) is forecast across California through the next week as high pressure dominates and skies are generally clear across the state (Fig. 4). However, the last 7-10 days of November feature increased exposure to Pacific westerlies across Northern California therefore increased cloud (and rain/snow) risk is likely. Consequently, state wind average for solar generation capability lowers for the last third of November. In Texas, despite sharp air mass changes, the solar generation potential is moderate through the next 10 days with 2 or 3 days close to ideal (Fig. 5). There may be 2 or 3 days when solar generation is suppressed more so than indicated in the 10-day forecast. In the extended-range, cloud cover may be near or above normal with wet weather risk due to a moisture fetch off the Gulf of Mexico. Fig. 4: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for CAISO. Fig. 5: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for ERCOT.  
11/13/2022, 9:43 am EST

October 2022 State Climate Rankings

Highlight: October 2022 State Climatology Rankings Fig. 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature observed in October 2022. Discussion: In October 2022, the prevailing upper air pattern featured a persistent trough in the Southeast and ridge across the Northwest States. Consequently, the West/Northwest U.S. observed a very warm mid-autumn (Fig. 1). Included was a record warm month of October in Washington. In the East, the upper trough brought cooler than normal climate to the Southeast States and Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley region. To the north, Maine was very warm observing their 6th warmest October on record. The precipitation regime was drier than normal, ranking 22nd driest in the 128-year climatology. Wet areas were confined to the Southwest States plus Montana and New England while New Jersey observed their 10th wettest October on record (Fig. 2). Most states were drier than normal with California, Minnesota, and Florida near or within the top 10 driest all-time for October. Fig. 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation observed in October 2022.    
11/13/2022, 9:25 am EST

October 2022 Wind/Solar Verification Report

Discussion: In October 2022, a persistent upper-level low-pressure trough dominated the East while a high-pressure ridge dropped anchor on the Northwest States. The sensible weather result was anomalous warmth across the West and New England while a cool pattern resided in the Southeast. Washington state was record warm. Nationally, October 2022 ranked in the top 20% driest on record. California, Minnesota and Florida were close to (or inside of) the top 10 driest months of October on record. Arizona and New Mexico observed a wetter than normal month of October. During October 2022, low-level cloudiness was above normal across the Southwest U.S. related to the wetter than normal monthly climate (Fig. 1). The high-level cloudiness was above normal to the east of this wet zone across west/southwest Texas (Fig. 2). Elsewhere, the upper trough in the East kept most attendant rainfall near or just-off the Atlantic Seaboard. Consequently, areas to the west observed above normal sunlight as demonstrated by negative specific humidity values at both 850 and 300 MB across the eastern half of the U.S. The Climate Impact Company October 2022 low-level (850 MB) and high-level (300 MB) anomalous moisture (cloud cover) forecast indicated above normal cloudiness (and attendant rainfall) in the East U.S. (Fig. 3). The wet weather pattern verified farther east and just offshore. The outlook across the Southwest U.S. was drier than normal and therefore more sunshine than average. This projection failed as lingering Southwest Monsoon moisture was present bot at low and high level (Fig. 4). Fig. 1-2: October 2022 observed 850 MB and 300 MB specific humidity anomalies. Fig. 3-4: October 2022 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB specific humidity anomalies. On average, the U.S. anomalous wind was below average speed in October 2022. The lighter than normal zonal wind was particularly notable in the Southwest U.S. and New England (Fig. 5). Meridional wind was below normal across parts of the Northwest Coast, Great Basin and southern Great Plains (Fig. 6). The only notable above normal wind was zonal in character on the Gulf Coast and meridional for Interior Southern California and Northern New England. The Climate Impact Company zonal and meridional wind speed anomaly forecast indicated a below normal regime for Northern California and New England and above normal for Texas (Fig. 7). The meridional wind speed anomaly forecast was fairly aggressive with below normal wind speeds for the Northwest and Great Plains with above normal wind speed for the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 8). Verification results were reasonable in California and the Northeast for zonal wind although the forecast did not extend the below normal zonal wind forecast far enough across Arizona and New Mexico. The meridional wind speed anomaly forecast produced the correct character for the Northwest and Central U.S. although the Southeast was not as windy as forecast. Fig. 5-6: October 2022 observed zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 7-8: October 2022 forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies.