The cold burst into the East during the first half of January biases the previous January 2025 temperature anomaly outlook slightly colder in the East and the adjustment is indicated above. A La Nina climate is developing and should bias the East U.S. warmer in February while cold risk shifts to the northwest quadrant of the U.S.

Upper trough settles on Western Europe. A colder pattern develops across most of Europe. The storm track stretches from Spain to Southeast Europe and Southwest Russia. As cold air increases, the storm track begins to produce snowfall. The snow cover will expand across much of Europe enhancing the incoming cold.

The daily Nino34 SSTA has cooled to -1.06C qualifying as a moderate La Nina signature. The cooling is remarkable with a 30-day change of a stunning -0.81C. The subsurface is as impressive as a strong cool anomaly intensified across the equatorial East Pacific and upper ocean heat east of the Dateline has cooled to a peak for the evolution of La Nina during 2024.

ECM has carried a wet bias with their 15-day operational outlooks throughout mid-to-late spring and early summer. Recently, GFS wet bias has (also) increased and is similar to ECM. Presented is an excellent opportunity for machine learning forecasts to compete with GFS and ECM as they may understand the wet bias and make adjustments to the operational forecast.