Marine heatwaves off Southwest Europe and in the Mediterranean Sea foreshadow amplified subtropical high-pressure ridging ahead as forecast for the remainder of June in Europe. The attendant weather is dry and hot and causes drought in Europe to strengthen and expand southward.

Meteorological spring 2025 was the second warmest on record. Thirty-three states observed MUCH ABOVE normal temperature with 12 states recording an all-time top 5 warmest springtime on record. North Carolina finished 2nd warmest on record.

Climate forecasts indicate drier/hotter risk shifting into the Midwest U.S. later in this summer. Late last week, forecast models suggested a possible onset of this warmer/drier pattern change for the 8-14/11-15-day period. However, over the weekend, forecast models trend wetter/cooler for the Midwest States.

In the extended range, AI Graph Cast and to a certain extent ECM ENS, are shifting West U.S. heat into the Central U.S. In the 16-20-day forecast, the anomalous heat crests over the Midwest States. Both NOAA and Climate Impact Company indicate dry/hot weather for this zone during JUL/AUG/SEP. Is this the onset of that pattern?