Heading into Q2/2025 the primary crop concern for the northern hemisphere is expansion of the Southwest U.S. drought northeast and northward to affect spring wheat, hard red winter wheat, and western soybean/corn growing areas in the Great Plains. A large drought across the Southwest U.S. produces a climate feedback mechanism to the atmosphere enhancing subtropical high pressure ridging which is forced northward by a wet monsoon season in the Southwest U.S. mid-to-late summer.

Dangerous flooding is likely in the East-central U.S. this week focused on WED-FRI due to a day-after-day severe weather and excessive rainfall in the same area. The area affected is Dallas to Oklahoma City northeastward to St. Louis and Memphis and into the Ohio Valley. After the heavy rain, unseasonably chilly air arrives.

An energetic storm track across the U.S. is trending stronger in overnight forecasts. Wetter conditions are projected in the AG regions including Mid-south U.S. severe weather and snowfall across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a long-term drought in the Black Sea region receives some beneficial rainfall in the medium range.

Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis from NOAA reveals a developing drought condition in Eastern China. Dry soils are developing in South Korea (where wildfires are burning) and Southern Japan. The developing drought is affecting mainly the eastern portion of wheat, soybean, and corn-growing areas.