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09/11/2022, 12:53 pm EDT

Clearway Energy Constructed Analog Wind/Solar Climate Outlook for October/November 2022

Climate Impact Company Wind/Solar Report Tuesday September 9, 2022 EXPERIMENTAL Zonal/Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast EXPERIMENTAL Specific Humidity Anomaly Forecast Valid: October through November 2022 Methodology discussion: The forecast is issued as the second third of the month arrives. The intention is to produce a 15-day operational forecast carrying through most of the remainder of the current month followed by the experimental constructed analog forecast for October and November. The 15-day operational forecast is based primarily on the American and/or European Ensemble (model) output (GFS/ECM ENS). The October/November 2022 constructed analog forecasts are based on regional ocean SSTA observations, trend and forecast for late 2022. Climate discussion: Most relevant to the Q3/2022 North America climate is the exceptionally warm mid-latitude SSTA pattern (Fig. 1) and the tendency of this pattern to produce exceptionally strong high-pressure aloft which causes long duration hot and dry regimes AND the added low-level atmospheric moisture that is entrained to occasional low-pressure systems which can dump a lot of rain. There are many examples of northern hemisphere heat and drought plus occasional historic rainfall events this past summer in the U.S., Europe and China caused by the pattern described. La Nina is restrengthening as a 3rd year of this regime has arrived. La Nina is contributing to the climate pattern but other regional SSTA patterns unique to recent years is dominating the prevailing climate. Heading into the 2022-23 cold season, warm mid-latitude SSTA continue to dominate along with a moderately strong La Nina episode. The constructed analog is based primarily on the presence of these two SSTA regimes. Fig. 1: The unusually warm mid-latitude SSTA pattern is a significant contributor to North America climate plus the ongoing La Nina regime. October/November 2022 wind forecast: A different type of pattern is expected in October. A persistent upper trough evolves over the West-central U.S. and delivers occasional cold risk to the northwest Great Plains and cool risk to the Southwest States. The persistent warmth shifts into the East. The North-central/Midwest U.S. turns wetter than normal. The southern states are generally dry. The Experimental CIC-CA zonal wind anomalies in October indicate limited high impact regimes (Fig. 2). Only Texas and South Carolina are susceptible to stronger than normal zonal wind (likely easterly for both states). The meridional wind anomaly forecast indicates above normal conditions in the Southeast States likely from the south while much of the Central U.S. observes below normal meridional wind speeds (Fig. 3). Above normal (north) wind is expected in central-coastal California. In November, the warm pattern re-emerges in the West/Cental U.S. while the East cools to near normal. California and the Mid-south U.S. are very dry. A polar vortex pattern is evolving over far Northern California while south of the jet stream axis, the West and Central States are warm. Occasional bursts of cold from northern North America dip into the East in November. The zonal wind anomaly forecast for November is very confident that above normal westerlies will affect the northern states while below normal westerlies are likely for the southern half of the U.S. (Fig. 4). The meridional anomaly forecast also produces above normal wind speeds for much of the northern half of the U.S. while the Southeast U.S. and Northern California have below normal meridional wind in November (Fig. 5). Fig. 2-3: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during October 2022. Fig. 4-5: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during November 2022. October/November 2022 solar forecast: The month of October produces above normal low and high-level specific humidity in the East where cloudiness is above normal despite very warm temperatures (Fig. 6-7). The Southwest States observe below normal cloud cover and above normal sunlight! In October, note the wet 850 MB anomaly forecast in the Gulf of Mexico which may be representative of tropical cyclone activity. In November, above normal cloudiness is widespread in the Mid-south to Northeast U.S. (Fig. 8-9). Above normal cirrus cloudiness is expected across the Southwest States in November. There is a general lack of above normal sunlight regions forecast in November. Fig. 6-7: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during October 2022. Fig. 8-9: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during November 2022.
09/11/2022, 11:44 am EDT

NOAA Summer/August 2022 State Climate Rankings

Summer 2022 was hot – again! Summer of 2022 ranked 3rd hottest of 128 years of climatology. Last year ranked the hottest summer on record. Summer of 2020 was 4th hottest on record. One commonality with each summer of the past 3 years is the presence of a La Nina climate.
09/11/2022, 11:35 am EDT

Clearway Energy Wind/Solar Forecast for September 2022

Operational Wind and Solar Forecast for September 2022 Methodology discussion: The forecast is issued as the second third of the month arrives. The intention is to produce a 15-day operational forecast carrying through most of the remainder of the current month followed by the experimental constructed analog forecast for October and November. The 15-day operational forecast is based primarily on the American and/or European Ensemble (model) output (GFS/ECM ENS). The October/November 2022 constructed analog forecasts are based on regional ocean SSTA observations, trend and forecast for late 2022. September forecast: The remainder of September is generally poor for wind power generation in California according to the GFS ENS 15-day forecast (Fig. 1-3). The heat wave has disipated and the outlook favors presence of an upper trough over or just offshore California the next 15 days. Thermal gradient to drive high wind is less likely in this regime. Notice that offshore, high wind propels high wind generation potential. In the Central U.S., wind power potential increases from the prevailing August regime. Moderately high wind speeds (generally from the southwest) are evident in both the 1-5-day and 6-10-day forecast by the GFS ENS centered on Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle (Fig. 4-5). Wind speeds increase to the highest since early summer in the same area in the 11-15-day wind power potential generation outlook (Fig. 6). The abundant convection causing flash flood risk in California associated with convective clouds which eventually emanate high-level cirrus cloud deck(s) abates mid-to-late this week. However, until that time, sunlight is certainly below normal across California and the Interior West (Fig. 7). In the 6-10-day period, the GFS ENS indicates a broad region of above normal sunlight across California and the Southwest U.S. to the Great Basin and eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard (Fig. 8). Solar power is very good to excellent throughout this region for Sep. 15-20. In the 11-15-day period, the large region of excellent solar power generation affecting the southern half of the U.S. is held back by patches of thunderstorm activity in Texas and Arizona (Fig. 9).   Fig. 1-3: GFS ENS wind power generation potential forecast is “poor” for the next 15 days. Fig. 4-6: GFS ENS wind power generation potential forecast is “poor” for the next 15 days. Fig. 7-9: GFS ENS percent of normal precipitation forecast across the U.S. for the next 15 days.        
09/09/2022, 1:41 pm EDT

Clearway Energy August 2022 Verification Report

U.S. VERIFICATION/Climate Summary for August 2022 Fig. 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature observed during August 2022. National discussion: In the U.S., August 2022 ranked 8th hottest on record although nighttime minimum temperatures averaged the warmest on record (Fig. 1). Eight states observed their hottest August on record including Washington, Oregon and Idaho plus New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. During August, Mississippi observed their wettest late meteorological summer on record (Fig. 2). Nevada and Louisiana observed their 3rd wettest August on record. Overall, August 2022 ranked 19th wettest in the historical record. Fig. 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation observed during August 2022. August 2022 verification discussion: The most prominent characteristic of the August climate pattern pertaining to renewable energy was the dramatic persistence of cloud cover due to the ongoing wet monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Of course, the evolving super-heat across California warranting excessive energy demand was the most prominent energy demand occurance of late meteorological summer. Anomalous high-pressure dominated the U.S. during late summer causing deficient wind speeds for power generation in many ket areas particulay the southwest Great Plains and western Texas. Zonal wind anomalies were generally lighter than normal for much of the South (Fig. 3) while meridional wind speed anomalies were also lighter than usual for most of the Southwest U.S. (Fig. 4). Comparing the experimental August 2022 forecast with observations yield excellent results in the Southwest U.S. where light wind was forecast (Fig. 5-6). However, the zonal wind speeds on the Gulf Coast were over-forecast. Fig. 3-4: Verification of the August 2022 zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company August 2022 zonal and meridional wind anomaly forecast. The above normal specific humidity (SH) values for both the lower and upper atmosphere were immense during August 2022. The 850 MB SH values were super-charged in the Southwest U.S. due to thunderstorms (Fig. 7). The high-level (300 MB) SH were above normal due to cirrus clouds extending eastward to the Gulf region from the Southwest coupled with locally generated convection (Fig. 8). The experimental 850/300 SH anomaly forecasts were not sufficiently wet (Fig. 9-10). The forecast did not accurately predict the above normal cloudiness hindering solar power generation in key Southwest and South U.S. locations. Fig. 7-8: Verification of the August 2022 low-level (850 MB) and high-level (300 MB) specific humidity to identify cloud presence. Fig. 9-10: The Climate Impact Company August 2022 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB specific humidity.