An eastward shift of the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast by all operational models. The MJO was semi-permanent in the tropical Indian Ocean to Maritime Continent since early August. The eastern shift is across the tropical East Pacific and Atlantic to West Africa through the next 2-3 weeks activating tropical cyclone activity in each ocean basin.

AIFS indicates potential for a developing tropical cyclone late in the 1-5-day period in the west-central Caribbean Sea. In the 6-10-day period, there is the likelihood of a hurricane developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is likely to turn northeastward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast U.S. early in the 11-15-day period.

The Climate Impact Company initial U.S. gas population weight heating degree day forecast for the 2024-25 cold season is issued. Most striking is the warm mid-winter forecast as national HDD falls well below the 30-year and 10-year climatology. The DEC-24 and FEB-25 forecasts are each close to the (warm) 10-year normal.

The Nino34 SSTA is trending toward the La Nina threshold and subsurface waters of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific are cooling foreshadowing a stronger La Nina ahead as agreed upon by most dynamic ENSO forecast models and Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecasts.