A dangerous late July/early August lengthy heatwave coupled with dry weather event is forecast for much of the Great Plains and Europe based on the latest ECMWF outlooks. Significant drought expansion and intensification will develop for both regions.

Soil moisture anomalies analysis reveals a large dry-to-drought scenario across Europe. The core of the drought is in France and Western Romania. The 10-day rainfall anomaly outlook by ECMWF indicates widespread drier than normal conditions. Week 2-4 forecasts rebuild Central Europe heat intensifying drought.

A classic El Nino style climate pattern emerges in late July...excessive rainfall in Southeast Brazil while areas to the north are arid. Included is ongoing unusual warmth for central continent.

Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is in a favorable location to produce abundant convective rains in the U.S. The NOAA/WPC 5-day quantitative precipitation forecast identifies the excessive rainfall associated with T.D. 2 in the Northeast Gulf, East Coast heavy rains, and a wet Southwest U.S. monsoon pattern.