Solar Cycle 25 appears to be intensifying more rapidly than initially forecast. Based on this early stage of solar cycle 25 observations, the solar peak projected for mid-decade is likely much stronger than previously forecast. There is potential for a historic solar maximum if the current rate of strengthening continues. Despite the potential for an exceptionally strong solar maximum, the correlation to larger than normal geomagnetic storms are not necessarily expected.

The MEI value for MAY/JUN 2022 was -1.9 which is the strongest negative index in the MEI 1979-2022 climatology with the exception of the second half of 2010 La Nina regime. The difference between the borderline La Nina Nino34 SSTA and intense La Nina MEI is the largest on record.

Based on ECMWF, Europe has a drought problem for upcoming summer. Dry-to-drought soil conditions are already developing. ECMWF shifts an amplified upper ridge over Western Europe into mid-July eastward to Central/East Europe for late July into August. In the U.S., the upper ridge is suppressed by an emerging eastern North America upper trough the next 2 weeks. However, the Central/Midwest U.S. ridge re-emerges in August.

A high-pressure ridge is forecast to take hold of the Europe climate pattern later in July and promote dry and hot climate to worsen already established dry soils. Expanding drought is in the forecast for Europe during mid-summer!