03/17/2022, 2:28 pm EDT

Explaining What Caused The Western Europe Dust Storm

The past couple days brought a northward surge of dust from the Sahara Desert to Southwest Europe reaching U.K. Dust storms over Southwest Europe are not unusual this time of year. However, the northern expanse and intensity of this event was exceptional. The northern surge of Sahara Dust was caused by a strong low-level southerly current of air across Northwest Africa in-between a small but potent upper trough on the Northwest Coast of Africa and an amplified upper ridge pattern over Northern Europe. The pattern is characteristic of the positive phase of the Scandinavia Index (+SCAND) regime.
03/16/2022, 2:13 pm EDT

July 2022 Central U.S. Drought Scare

Evidence to support a dry (and hot) mid-summer climate forecast for North America in the Great Plains is increasing. The most recent NCEP CFS V2 and ECMWF “monthlies” outlook for July 2022 each indicate widespread anomalous dry climate for the entire Great Plains with disagreement for the Canadian Prairies.
03/11/2022, 9:55 am EST

Sharp Oceanic Warming Off the Northwest Coast of South America

An east-shifting subsurface Kelvin Wave reached the northwest coast of South America during late FEB/early MAR leading to a rapid warming of the ocean surface in the Nino12 SSTA region. The core of the ongoing La Nina regime shifts westward. However, the warming in the east, may be a sign of La Nina's demise ahead.
03/09/2022, 5:04 pm EST

March 2022 Monthly ENSO Outlook Supports Drought Risk Great Plains, East China, Bolivia to Uruguay.

A warm-up off the northwest coast of South America supports the ECMWF projection of weakening La Nina and signs of El Nino in the eastern equatorial pacific toward mid-year. The ENSO signature supports drought risk for the Great Plains, East-central China and Bolivia to Uruguay.