Recently, waters off the West Coast have cooled dramatically. The release of the latent heat involved in this process may have amplified the upper ridge pattern roasting the Northwest U.S. All of the warming of the ocean surface during the past 2+ weeks is north of Hawaii where Marine Heat Wave NEP22A is intensifying.

Due to unexpected cooler than normal waters in the North Atlantic basin subtropics and only near normal SSTA in the deep tropics the 2022 seasonal tropical cyclone forecast is reduced slightly in the latest Climate Impact Company update.

Forecasts for a 3rd consecutive La Nina year are confident. 3rd La Nina years are rare. Using the operational Nino index (ONI) for 1950-2022 yields 3 ENSO regimes (1956, 1975 and 2000) in which a 3rd consecutive La Nina year occurred. In that 3rd year of La Nina, widespread dryness affects the Central to Southeast U.S. and Brazil.

The Climate Impact Company U.S. season 1-3 ahead forecast valid for meteorological autumn 2022, winter 2022-23 and spring 2023 is issued. The forecast is based on a constructed analog (please see methodology on CIC client pages). High impact highlights include a warm autumn season featuring very dry weather in the Mid-south States. Autumn tropical cyclone risk is highest in Florida and the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Next winter is cold and snowy across the North-central U.S. while the South and East enjoy a mild season.