Operational forecast models indicate Hurricane Florence will approach and possibly strike the U.S. East Coast mid-to-late next week. The environment to support a major hurricane off the East Coast next week is excellent. Tropical cyclone models indicate Florence returns to major hurricane status southeast of Bermuda early next week. Florence is likely to maintain major hurricane intensity tracking west of Bermuda toward the U.S. East Coast next week.

Upper shear is preventing Gordon from full organization despite presence over very warm Gulf of Mexico waters. However, the warm Gulf and slightly less shear later today enables Gordon to become a hurricane moving inland the west coast of Mississippi late this evening. High flood risk due to 6-10 in. of rain is expected with Mississippi hardest hit.

Current and projected warm SSTA in the central/east-central tropical Pacific Ocean drives heavy rainfall while areas to the west such as Australia are in a subsidence region causing more dry climate.

The Madden Julian oscillation has anchored in the West Pacific during northern hemisphere summer but suddenly is forecast to shift to the North Atlantic tropics in early September causing the subtropics and tropics to gain rain producing tropical waves and possible tropical cyclones.