On Monday and Tuesday of this week New Orleans set daily records of 96 and 97. The onset of extreme heat is related to the rapid transition of drier soil moisture in the Mid-South U.S. during the month of May. Well known is the relationship between large areas of soil moisture deficit to increase anomalous heat risk during the summer season. Not as well-known is the ability for the same hot weather enhancement by a rapid drier soil moisture change.

The onset of tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin is a few weeks away. Interestingly, the North Atlantic tropics have cooled to below normal the last several months. Recovery can certainly occur however leading forecast models maintain this cool signature into the core of tropical cyclone season and also indicate signs of a potential El Nino. If an El Nino were to form and the North Atlantic tropical waters were near or cooler than normal, the 2018 tropical cyclone season would observe diminished activity.

Nationally, the U.S. ranked 13th coolest in the 1895-2017 climatology for the month of April. The Midwest U.S. was record cool and minimum temperature averages for the month were record cool for most of the U.S. Corn and Wheat Belt.

Dryness across southwest and southeast Australia Crop Areas continues based on the April 2018 soil moisture analysis provided by Bureau of Meteorology/Australia. We await potential beneficial winter rainfall to ease drought this winter season caused by a projected negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole. The -IOD pattern has yet to develop.