Hot/dry Summer Argentina; Most (Not All) of Brazil Avoids Drought

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Summary: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast for South America during meteorological summer 2022-23 indicates persistent anomalous heat and dryness in Argentina where flash drought is quite possible (Fig. 1-2). The dryness extends to Southeast Brazil although less consistent. Far Southeast Brazil has a drought risk for summer 2022-23. The remainder of Brazil Crop Areas is normally wet with diminished drought risk. The CIC-CA forecast is generally consistent with climate probability outlooks issued by IRI (Fig. 3-4).

Fig. 1-2: Climate Impact Company DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23 constructed analog temperature and precipitation anomaly forecast for South America.

Fig. 3-4: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23 temperature and precipitation probability forecast for South America.