News
06/20/2022, 5:31 pm EDT

La Nina Continues to Weaken But Further Weakening Is Likely Temporary

Oceanic La Nina continues to weaken. The Nino34 SSTA is just-within the La Nina threshold at -0.6C. In the subsurface, the equatorial East Pacific is warming and east of the Dateline upper ocean heat is now warmer than normal.
06/17/2022, 1:37 pm EDT

The U.S. June 20-24 Heatwave from ERCOT to SERC

Using today's 12Z GFS identifies an immense heatwave forecast for Texas to the Southeast U.S. next week. Temperatures trend a little hotter each day with historical records most likely to strike Houston and Atlanta. Readings in the 103-106F range are likely for each location with heat index reaching 115F.
06/16/2022, 4:03 pm EDT

Long-term -PDO/+AMO Validate Southwest U.S./Texas Drought; Now Adding the Midwest States During Summer 2022

Frequently referred to research identifying PDO/AMO regimes combined influence on U.S. drought risk was published by McCabe, Palecki and Betancourt in 2004. The influence of long-term -PDO/+AMO regimes on U.S. drought risk is elevated for the Southwest and West-central U.S. plus Texas and also the Midwest States. The Southwest U.S. to Texas drought is already locked-in while the Midwest U.S. has avoided drought so far. But that will change during mid-to-late summer!
06/15/2022, 7:57 am EDT

U.S. and Europe Weather Critical…Mega-cluster Ensemble “Most Likely” Scenarios Second Half of June

Mega-cluster ensembles maintain the hot and dry Central/Southeast U.S. weather pattern through the end of June. Dryness accompanies the hot weather zones. In Europe, the hot/dry weather shifts eastward and may subside (temporarily) by late month.