In Southeast Brazil, the 15-day forecast is unrelenting as more excessive rain is indicated. GFS projects >10 in. of rain during the next 15 days in Southeast Brazil. The widespread damaging flooding episode in the Southeast Brazil State of Rio Grande Do Sul began in late April and will continue well into May.

During early May a cold upper trough across Northwest Russia intensified leading to an unusually cold outbreak of air which shifted southward into Russia’s wheat belt peaking in intensity earlier this week. The wintery chill extended southward over bare ground causing damage to the spring and winter wheat growing areas in Southwest Russia.

So far in 2024, the U.S. is 5th warmest on record. Of the 48 contiguous states, 34 ranked MUCH ABOVE normal for the first 4 months of 2024. Northern New England and New York have encountered their 2nd warmest first 1/3 of the year on record. Michigan and Wisconsin are also the 2nd warmest on record for the 4-month period.

Issued on the 5th of each month is the ECMWF “monthlies” extending to 6 months. The projected upper air forecasts for June through September are indicated (Fig. 1-4). What we’re looking for are areas of semi-permanent high pressure which best identify areas where anomalous heat and dry climate persist leading to a potential drought. The obvious region exposed to this risk according to ECMWF is Central and Southwest Europe during August and September.