The MEI value for MAY/JUN 2022 was -1.9 which is the strongest negative index in the MEI 1979-2022 climatology with the exception of the second half of 2010 La Nina regime. The difference between the borderline La Nina Nino34 SSTA and intense La Nina MEI is the largest on record.

Based on ECMWF, Europe has a drought problem for upcoming summer. Dry-to-drought soil conditions are already developing. ECMWF shifts an amplified upper ridge over Western Europe into mid-July eastward to Central/East Europe for late July into August. In the U.S., the upper ridge is suppressed by an emerging eastern North America upper trough the next 2 weeks. However, the Central/Midwest U.S. ridge re-emerges in August.

A high-pressure ridge is forecast to take hold of the Europe climate pattern later in July and promote dry and hot climate to worsen already established dry soils. Expanding drought is in the forecast for Europe during mid-summer!

U.S. drought concerns are increasing. The dry month of June combined with a lot of heat has caused Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to trend drier. Consequently, the rainfall needed to neutralize that dry soil moisture signature has increased DRAMATICALLY in late June. Off the chart (>15 in.) values appear in the NOAA/CPC analysis in Washington, California, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.