Taking A Look at the Europe/North America Ridge Pattern Forecast for Mid-Summer 2022

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Fig. 1-4: Europe soil moisture anomalies and ECMWF upper air forecast for the next 6 weeks and attendant dry/warm-to-hot zones.

Europe discussion: Drought concerns for Europe during summer of 2022 are increasing! Currently, drought watch and warnings are posted across much of Europe (Fig. 1). Strongest drought is in Italy. Important dryness stretches from Western France to Ukraine and includes parts of Scandinavia and the Baltic region. ECMWF projects a vigorous high-pressure ridge across Western Europe through the next 2 weeks (Fig. 2). The upper ridge promotes dry and warm-to-hot climate that worsens drought for West and Central Europe. The late July forecast by ECMWF shifts the core of the upper ridge to East-central Europe (Fig. 3). The attendant weather features dry and warm-to-hot character across most of Europe to the Black Sea region and much of this area encounters dry-to-drought soil moisture conditions as August arrives. During the first half of August, the ridge is locked-in over the drought area and anomalous heat and dryness persists further aggravating a Europe drought condition for summer 2022 (Fig. 4).

Fig. 5-8: Europe soil moisture anomalies and ECMWF upper air forecast for the next 6 weeks and attendant dry/warm-to-hot zones.

North America discussion: A pattern change is ahead for the first half of July as excessive heat in the East-central U.S. eases with evolution of a northeastern North America upper trough which will extend into the eastern U.S. (Fig. 5). The hot and dry climate pattern constricts and is centered on Texas and the southern Great Plains during this period. The second half of July finds the upper trough drops anchor over the Ohio Valley slowly weakening but strong enough to suppress heat risk and adds showers to the Eastern U.S. forecast (Fig. 6). Into August, the upper ridge is regenerating over central to northeast continent (Fig. 7). As a result, dry and very warm to hot climate regenerates across the entire Great Plains and also advances into the Midwest U.S. The ECMWF August 2022 upper air projection favors the ridge amplifying over Quebec and extending into the Central U.S. to promote dry and warm to hot weather in this zone (Fig. 8). The emerging dryness across the Central/North U.S. in August is likely to continue in September.