Highlight: Drought ahead!
Charts of the day: Soil moisture anomalies and 7-day rainfall forecast.
Discussion: Daily soil moisture anomalies reveal widespread dryness across Europe with drought established in Italy. The 7-day outlook indicates last week’s wet weather across interior Western Europe is gone as a much drier regime returns. The Black Sea region is also mostly dry.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid July 11-17, 2022: Warm to hot and dry in Europe.
Discussion: A very dry regime emerges across much of Central and Southern Europe with attendant anomalous heat. A cool and wet trough resides in Western Russia.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid July 18-24, 2022: Widening drought risk.
Discussion: Hot and dry weather promote widening drought risk in Europe.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid July 25-31, 2022: Hot/mostly dry climate intact.
Discussion: Continued mostly dry and hot across Europe and into the Black Sea region as high-pressure dominates.