01/28/2024, 1:16 pm EST

Excessive Heat Argentina, Hot Pattern Australia, Heavy Precipitation Returns to Europe, China chill.

Extremes are ahead as February arrives. Featured is extreme heat risk in Argentina with an attendant dry climate. Parts of Australia have observed a much hotter than normal mid-summer and the heat becomes more extreme into early February. Mostly dry and mild this week in Europe but a vigorous storm track returns next week. The second cold outbreak of winter so far is heading for China during the medium range.
01/25/2024, 8:26 am EST

Marine Heatwave Inspires Emerging South Africa Drought

Characteristic of climate change is the evolution of marine heatwaves (MHW) as part of the warming of the global ocean surface in recent decades, particularly the last 10-15 years. Climate Impact Company follows MHW’s closely and their potential atmospheric impact. A recent MHW forming southwest of Africa is intensifying.
01/24/2024, 4:24 am EST

Inaugural Year-2 Ahead Climate Outlook for North America

The Climate Impact Company inaugural year-2 ahead climate forecast for North America is issued. The forecast is valid for meteorological spring 2025 through winter 2025-26. Forecast highlights include a wet spring in Texas/Louisiana, a (nationally) hotter than normal summer, warmer than normal autumn, and possibly a vigorously warm winter 2025-26 season. Important dryness leading to drought emerges in Texas during the summer season and expands to the Mid-south States by autumn. The winter 2025-26 forecast is unusually dry.
01/22/2024, 8:02 am EST

Upper Ocean Heat in Equatorial East Pacific Diminishing Fast Signaling El Nino’s Demise Ahead

The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast has relentlessly been forecasting a flip from the current strong oceanic El Nino to similarly intense La Nina by the end of 2024. Given the strength of the current El Nino and the general oceanic anomalous warmth poleward of the Pacific tropics, a rapid shift toward strong La Nina seems unrealistic. The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast insists on a decline in El Nino with neutral ENSO by April, weak La Nina by June, and strong La Nina by October. A recent development supportive of this forecast is the sudden loss of upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.