In response to a moderate-strength La Nina, the southern hemisphere has responded with a positive phase Pacific South America (+PSA) climate pattern. The +PSA regime is present when semi-permanent high-pressure is amplified southwest of Australia, near New Zealand and east of Argentina.

Likely the warmest water surface temperatures for February east of New England on record are observed during past week or so. A sea surface temperature of 55-60F due east of New England and due south of Nova Scotia is indicated which is in the 11-13F range above normal.

Due to the snow on the ground across much of Texas low-level cold air will make sure that incoming air is either sleet, snow or freezing rain for the overnight into Wednesday storm. Moderate to heavy snow spreads across Oklahoma into northern Texas this evening while freezing rain and accreting ice extends eastward to central Texas by midnight and eastward to Louisiana and southern Arkansas by dawn tomorrow.

Historic and in some cases life-threatening weather evolves over the weekend including a historic arctic outbreak featuring temperatures as low as -35 in Minnesota and below zero reaching Texas, heavy/drifting Texas and southern Great Plains snow and significant ice accretion in the northwest gulf Coast States.