Unusually cool surface/subsurface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic coupled with warming of the subsurface in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are climate diagnostics supportive of diminished tropical cyclone activity in 2018 for the North Atlantic basin.

A large pool of cool ocean water south of Greenland is reflected in the upper atmosphere by a persistent polar vortex in eastern Canada. Meanwhile a large envelope of humid subtropical air surrounds Alberto in the Southeast U.S. Yesterday, the two air masses met in the form of a back door cold front in the Baltimore area and an 8-in. rainstorm evolved in Ellicott City.

Frequent very hot days caused in-part due to drought in the Southeast through the middle third of May is about to end as wet weather suppresses anomalous heat risk ahead.

The JUN/JUL/AUG 2018 probabilistic rainfall forecast issued by NOAA/CPC may be the wettest summer outlook issued in the 23-year history of the (NOAA) long-lead forecast product.