As stated on several occasions via soil moisture observations and trend and yesterday’s 2-5-week outlook, conditions for developing and expanding drought in the U.S. are favorable. NOAA/CPC identified specific regions in an alert issued late yesterday. They are eastern Oklahoma, the southern Missouri Valley, southern Ohio Valley to the western Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic region.

Hot and dry weather streaks across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. in early July while gully-washer thunderstorms unload on the Midwest States and New Mexico. Nationally, mid-to-late July looks hot and drier. The Gulf of Mexico waits until later July to become active.

The short-term heat across the high population northeast quadrant of the U.S. is expected to repeat during summer 2024 and consequently the U.S. population weight CDD forecast has increased again. The JUN/JUL/AUG 2024 projection is 1004 CDD ranking 4th hottest of this century trailing only 2016 (1030), 2010 (1020), and 2011 (1014). 

Expected later this year as an evolving La Nina climate and several global SSTA forecast models are now projecting negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole. The combination of La Nina and -IOD climate ahead supports a wet pattern in Australia by springtime especially eastern sections.