05/08/2024, 12:18 pm EDT

U.S. Is 5th Warmest On Record in 2024 So Far

So far in 2024, the U.S. is 5th warmest on record. Of the 48 contiguous states, 34 ranked MUCH ABOVE normal for the first 4 months of 2024. Northern New England and New York have encountered their 2nd warmest first 1/3 of the year on record. Michigan and Wisconsin are also the 2nd warmest on record for the 4-month period.
05/07/2024, 8:42 am EDT

ECMWF “Monthlies” Identify Europe Drought and Hostile North Atlantic TC Season for Summer 2024

Issued on the 5th of each month is the ECMWF “monthlies” extending to 6 months. The projected upper air forecasts for June through September are indicated (Fig. 1-4). What we’re looking for are areas of semi-permanent high pressure which best identify areas where anomalous heat and dry climate persist leading to a potential drought. The obvious region exposed to this risk according to ECMWF is Central and Southwest Europe during August and September.
05/06/2024, 1:52 pm EDT

Equatorial Pacific Subsurface Continues too Steadily Cool

The Nino34 SSTA cooled to the El Nino threshold (+0.5C) last week while the entire Nino SSTA region averaged +0.5C, which is slightly warmer than much of April. Notably, the Nino12 SSTA off the northwest coast of South America warmed dramatically the past 2 weeks. Meanwhile, in the subsurface, the cooling necessary to cause an ENSO phase change from El Nino to La Nina continued. In April, the subsurface equatorial Pacific was cooler and firmly within the La Nina threshold.
05/05/2024, 12:03 pm EDT

NOAA Fire Risk Outlook May to August 2024: Concern Areas are New Mexico, Great Basin, Washington, and Hawaii

NOAA issued their fire risk outlook last week. In review, the May 2024 risk highlights Southeast Arizona, parts of eastern New Mexico, and north-central Florida as susceptible to fire development and expansion due to dry soils. Note that all the Hawaiian Islands are in a similar risk throughout the next 4 months. Also note the lack of fire risk in California into mid-summer due to plentiful soil moisture largely created by runoff from snowmelt.