In the extended range, AI Graph Cast and to a certain extent ECM ENS, are shifting West U.S. heat into the Central U.S. In the 16-20-day forecast, the anomalous heat crests over the Midwest States. Both NOAA and Climate Impact Company indicate dry/hot weather for this zone during JUL/AUG/SEP. Is this the onset of that pattern?

May 2025 CDD count was an over-achiever for Europe Western Cities. The consensus of selected West Europe cities CDD in May was MUCH ABOVE normal and inspired by Heathrow and Paris-Orly with warmest departures. The warm signature appears in the June and July forecast for Western Europe as the consensus of selected cities is much warmer than the 10-year normal and except for JUN-23 is the warmest of the past 3 years.

As the 2025 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season begins, a review of where we stand regarding upper ocean heat across various basins in the North Atlantic where tropical cyclones form and travel. In the tropical North Atlantic, upper ocean heat is above the 2013-24 normal and tied for 3rd warmest in the 13-year climatology. If warming (compared to normal) occurs during the summer months, hurricanes will be in the upper limit of 6-10 forecast by NOAA for the 2025 season.

The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues to reveal a wide array of possible ENSO conditions for later this year. The latest 8 members of the ensemble forecast indicates a range of neutral ENSO to strong La Nina by early meteorological autumn.