In the 11-15-day period, an upper trough shifts into Eastern Brazil and causes an expanding wet weather pattern across a drought zone. In the week 3-4 period, an upper trough in Brazil causes the wet weather to shift farther west across Central Brazil suppressing a drought risk.

Based on the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecasts for winter 2023-24 a look at the prevailing upper air pattern for December, January, and February is provided with annotations as to where (based on the upper pattern) significant snow is likely to occur.

In 15 days, the mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” upper air forecast indicates a cold trough lingering over Europe. ECM, GFS, and CFS V2 each indicate a robust warm pattern change. However, extensive snow cover advises caution, and the CMC projection of lingering cold is indicated.

Oceanic El Nino is approaching peak. However, atmospheric El Nino is considerably weaker. Consequently, non-El Nino-like weather regimes are occurring. Examples are incoming heavy rains for India and Southeast Asia, unexpected heavy rains for Eastern Australia, and evolving bitter cold across Europe and Northwest Russia.