Pictured is the 30-day rainfall amount across Virginia indicating a range of 10-25 in. (and high spots near 30 in.). The great rainfall event of late calendar spring 2018 from the Midwest U.S. to Virginia was caused in a large part by a vast cooler than normal ocean surface regime south of Greenland.

The equatorial subsurface Pacific Ocean is plenty warm and warming and foreshadows El Nino ahead once trade winds cease on a consistent basis. Cross-equatorial flow powered by the positive phase of the Pacific meridional mode has prevented surface warming into late calendar northern hemisphere spring.

After a hot and mostly dry period through mid-June Central U.S. agriculture areas are struck by 3-6 in. of gully-washer rains this week.

Another slow down of the prevailing westerly flow aloft in the middle latitudes is forecast for the last 10 days of June leading to increased risk of extreme weather events.