03/12/2023, 12:49 pm EDT

Strong Madden Julian Oscillation Ends La Nina

The daily southern oscillation index (SOI) is -1.2 which is exceptionally negative especially when compared to the dominant La Nina-like positive phase of the past one year. The shift to negative phase is due to the passage of the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) through the equatorial East Pacific and onto the Atlantic basin. The MJO strength is exceptional and one of the strongest signatures in recent years.
03/10/2023, 8:42 am EST

The Dominance of Regional SSTA Patterns on South America Climate 

A familiar upper air forecast over the next 15 days across South America with an amplified upper ridge across the warm SSTA east of Argentina and a low-pressure trough extending north from near the Amundsen Sea cool SSTA pool. A transient MJO inspires a wet pattern across Brazil funneling moisture southward around the backside of the South Atlantic subtropical high into west and central portions of Argentina but missing much of the drought zone.
03/09/2023, 8:40 am EST

March 2023 Global Soil Moisture Observations and Outlook

During early 2023, soil moisture conditions improved greatly from California to the Upper Midwest U.S. The Argentina drought worsened, and re-emerging drought appeared in France. Dryness appeared in East-central Australia and Northeast India.