The upper ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific is warming sharply. An old Kelvin Wave shifting eastward arrived on the northwest coast of South America the past 1-2 weeks and has caused steady impressive warming in the Nino12 SSTA region. A new Kelvin Wave has shifted east of the Dateline to about 145-140W longitude. The new Kelvin Wave is forecast to reach the northwest South America coast by early May.

Dynamic ENSO phase forecast models are indicating a full-tilt El Nino by August 2023. Implied is a tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin possibly similar to the last full-throttle El Nino that suppressed North Atlantic activity. Below normal rainfall was observed during JUL/AUG/SEV 2015 across the Southern U.S., Gulf of Mexico, and western North Atlantic tropics.

Since late January, the Pacific North America (PNA) index has shifted to a (mostly) steady negative phase. A brief positive phase is with us now, but strengthening negative phase returns in the latest 15-day forecast. The -PNA pattern occurs when an upper-level troughing in the jet stream pattern occurs just off the North America West Coast. The persistence of the -PNA pattern has caused the Northeast Pacific to cool, the Northeast Pacific marine heat wave (MHW) to shift westward and reinvigorate the cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO).

The Europe Drought Observatory identifies strengthening drought across parts of Western Europe. Drought is also intensifying in Turkey. The latest week 2-4 outlook indicates some patchy beneficial rain but not enough to turn around dry soil conditions.