07/16/2023, 12:37 pm EDT

The Wetter Pattern Change in the Northeast U.S.

After a relatively dry and cool spring in the Northeast U.S. Corridor, the weather pattern has changed dramatically. During July so far, the Northeast U.S. has shifted 1-3C warmer than normal while flooding rainfall events have emerged. The rainfall events are producing historical flooding in Vermont and widening toward central and southern New England today.
07/13/2023, 9:42 am EDT

Over-achieving Solar Cycle 25 Continues!

The risk of disruption to radio and satellite communications as well as power grids may increase if solar cycle 25 continues to over-achieve in intensity heading for maxima in 2025.
07/11/2023, 11:19 am EDT

The Lack of El Nino Climate (so far) Inhibits +IOD Evolution

The expected onset of positive phase Indian ocean Dipole by JUL/AUG 2023 is delayed. The issue is the vertical motion in the tropical Indian/Pacific Ocean(s) is not well-correlated with an El Nino climate which would drive +IOD evolution. Until the El Nino climate pattern develops (AUG/SEP), +IOD will be delayed and the longer the delay the more likely +IOD is not as strong as currently forecast by most dynamic models.
07/10/2023, 8:03 am EDT

Significant Increase in Projected North Atlantic Basin 2023 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Due to a delayed atmospheric El Nino and record warm North Atlantic, the North Atlantic basin seasonal forecast is revised. The updated forecast projects 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. Previously, only 3 seasons have produced 20 (or more) tropical cyclones. If 2023 observes 20 tropical cyclones, 3 of the past 4 years will have managed that achievement.