News
12/09/2022, 4:09 pm EST

U.S. November/Autumn 2022 Climate Report

November 2022 and SEP/OCT/NOV 2022 Climate Report Discussion: The U.S. November 2022 thermal climate produced two distinct patterns: Cold West and warm East (Fig: 1). The West U.S. finished the month in the top 10 coldest (for November) in the 128-year historical record. Idaho finished 4th coldest all-time. In the East, New England, North Carolina and Florida each finished in the top 10 all-time warmest for November. Nationally, the U.S. ranked 44 of 128 years where 1 is coldest and 128 is warmest. The November 2022 precipitation climate ranked moderately wet. The South and East ranked wetter than normal but not excessive (Fig. 2). Nebraska and the Ohio Valley were marginally wet. Meteorological autumn 2022 was (nationally) warmer than normal ranking 24th warmest in the 128-year historical record. The West and North U.S. ranked warmer than normal including Washington and New England which ranked in the top-10 warmest autumn seasons on record (Fig. 3). Maine observed their 4th warmest autumn season on record. Uniquely, only Tennessee and Alabama observed a cooler than normal autumn season. The autumn season was dry, ranking 23rd all-time in the 128-year historical record where 1 is driest. Motivating the dry climate pattern for meteorological autumn were top-10 driest all-time rankings for Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Indiana, and Kentucky (Fig. 4). The West Coast was moderately drier than normal during autumn. The wet regions were New England and Florida. Fig: 1: NOAA state rankings for temperature during November 2022. Fig: 2: NOAA state rankings for precipitation during November 2022. Fig: 3: NOAA state rankings for temperature during SEP/OCT/NOV 2022. Fig: 4: NOAA state rankings for precipitation during SEP/OCT/NOV 2022.    
12/09/2022, 4:07 pm EST

November 2022 Wind/Solar Verification

Discussion: A tale of two regimes dominated the November 2022 U.S. climate pattern. In the West, a semi-permanent upper-level low-pressure trough caused almost the entire West to finish in the top 10 coldest late autumn seasons in the 1895-2022 historical record. Meanwhile, in the East, an upper ridge pattern with axis across the northern Mid-Atlantic States yielded all-time top 10 warm late autumn seasons for New England and Florida. The Southern States turned wetter than normal while the Midwest U.S. autumn dryness continued although less aggressively. In the U.S., cloud cover related to relative humidity (RH) at 5,000 feet (850 MB for “low” clouds) and 30,000 feet (300 MB for “high” clouds) was above normal for both levels in Florida and the Upper Midwest/South-central Canada (Fig. 1-2). Blow normal RH at each level identifying areas of above normal sunlight were observed across the northern half of California and Oregon. The Climate Impact Company forecast for November indicated a large area of below normal RH at 850 MB (Fig. 3). The forecast for below normal low-level cloudiness was too aggressive. Similarly, the low RH forecast at 300 MB for most of the U.S. implied widespread above normal sunlight (Fig. 4). However, only the West Coast observed above normal sunlight while the presence of above normal cirrus clouds to suppress sunlight was observed across the Southwest U.S. and much of Southern Canada. Fig. 1-2: November 2022 observed 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. Fig. 3-4: November 2022 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. Areas with above normal zonal and/or meridional wind speeds during November 2022 were in short supply. Zonal wind anomalies were stronger than normal across North Dakota to Iowa and coastal New England during November. Below normal zonal wind speeds were dominant in the Continental Divide region and eastward across the Mid-south States to the Carolinas and Virginia (Fig. 5). Meridional wind speeds were above normal in Wisconsin and New England (Fig. 6). The Climate Impact Company November 2022 zonal wind speed forecast called for above normal across the northern tier of the U.S. (Fig. 7) and only the North-central States validated that claim. The tendency for less than normal zonal wind speed across the southern tier of the U.S. was hinted at by the CIC prediction. The November 2022 meridional wind speed anomaly forecast featured above normal for the Great Plains and Northeast U.S. (Fig. 8). Only parts of this large zone observed above normal meridional wind speeds in November. Fig. 5-6: November 2022 observed zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 7-8: November 2022 forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies.
12/06/2022, 8:17 pm EST

3rd Snowiest North America on Record for November

The November 2022 northern hemisphere snow cover was tied for 3rd most in the 1966-2022 record. In North America, November 2022 ranked 3rd most snowy on record while Eurasia was 12th most snowy of the past 57 years.
12/05/2022, 9:41 am EST

Forecast Models Projecting El Nino for Mid-to-late 2023 with Increasing strength

The NCEP FCS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues an aggressive trend that indicates ending of La Nina early in 2023 followed by a shift into El Nino middle of 2023. ECM is indicating a much stronger El Nino developing middle of 2023. Climate Impact Company will issue a new ENSO forecast for 2023 late this week!