The intra-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is emerging in the outer North Atlantic tropics but struggling to produce any tropical waves due to an unfavorable environment including cooler than normal surface water. Encouragement from the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation to help ignite deep tropics waves and possible cyclones looks to be well into the distant future, possibly late August.

A robust Madden Julian oscillation convection signal present across Indonesia for the past 2-3 weeks increases tropical cyclone risk and has enhanced the Southeast Asia Monsoon causing excessive rainfall events. The subsidence phase of the MJO stretches across the North Atlantic tropics suppressing tropical waves from forming. The pattern is forecast to last well into August keeping the deep tropics of the North Atlantic absent of tropical cyclone risk.

The dry climate of spring and summer in Central Europe has caused a rapid descent in the Rhine River level the past 30 days with a dry climate pattern likely to continue into early August.

After the warmest May on record the month of June was nearly as impressive ranking 3rd warmest of the past 124 years of record. The anomalous hot July already underway is likely to cause the MAY/JUN/JUL 2018 seasonal temperature anomaly to rank warmest all-time.