A series of STRONG upper troughs finally breaks down the persistent drought-producing high pressure ridge dominating Europe climate for much of the past 4 months occurring over the next 1-2 weeks. The second trough rolling across Central Europe next weekend brings potential excessive precipitation to reverse the historic low river levels.

The strongest polar vortex on record as defined by the arctic oscillation and especially the North Atlantic oscillation indices has occurred in 2018. +AO/+NAO contributed to the 4th warmest warm season on record for the U.S. and also caused historical Europe drought. Now...due to seasonality...the strong polar vortex is producing record early season snow cover across Canada enabling cold air generation infiltrating the U.S. pattern. Meanwhile immense equatorial subsurface warming is ready to ignite what may be a strong El Nino. The warming influence of El Nino will clash the chilly polar vortex regime by late autumn in North America causing more extreme climate.

A whopping 165% of normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has been observed in 2018 through October 11 across the ocean basins of the northern hemisphere. The East Pacific is a leading contributor (247% of normal) plus an over-achieving North Atlantic basin (130% of normal). A leading contributor to the well above normal activity is a warmer than normal ocean.

There's no denying the immense warmth in the equatorial Pacific subsurface and (now) recent warming of the NINO SSTA regions. A fortified El Nino ahead adjustment is made to the Bureau of Meteorology/Australia forecast.