Most global SSTA forecasts reveal El Nino for the northern hemisphere summer of 2023 plus widespread marine heat waves in the mid-latitude oceans. If so, 2023 is likely the warmest year on record, a common occurrence during the past 10-15 years.

Anomalous heat is generating across Australia thanks to a titanic semi-permanent high-pressure area centered on Western Australia through the next 1-2 weeks. The hottest day of many ahead appears to be February 20th when widespread 100-115F (38-46C) is observed.

Torrid heat and dryness is about end in Argentina as a strong cold front arrives Thursday triggering a few heavy thunderstorms and causing a surge of much cooler weather to shift north into Southern Brazil. Much cooler air across the Argentina drought region follows. Most of the rain associated with the front is across Southwest Brazil. Hot weather and dryness will regenerate in Argentina in the 6-10-day period.

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to shift eastward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the next 2 weeks. Following passage of the MJO, equatorial wind shifts to west or southwest and eliminates trade winds. The lack of trade winds eliminates the up-welling process that sustains La Nina. Oceanic La Nina 2020-23 likely dissipates by March 1st.