The U.S. June 20-24 Heatwave from ERCOT to SERC

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Heat stress becomes overwhelming to electric grids/soil conditions.

Monday Outlook: Next week begins with searing heat continuing over the Great Plains to Texas and into the Southeast States (Fig. 1). Out concern on Monday is the Houston area where afternoon temperatures roar well past 100F. Heat index is elevated to dangerous levels in the 110-115F range.

Fig. 1: 12Z GFS maximum temperature forecast for Monday.

Tuesday Outlook: The work week begins with excessive heat expanding across the Southeast U.S. (Fig. 2). Once again, the Houston area surges well past 100F. However, Atlanta is added to the excessive heat surge risk area on Tuesday.

Fig. 2: 12Z GFS maximum temperature forecast for Tuesday.

Wednesday Outlook: East/southeast Texas remains immense middle of next week (Fig. 3). Widespread 103-108F is expected with heat index potentially exceeding 115F. However, the hottest weather next Wednesday is likely in Georgia where 102-108F is likely! The 100F region extends to Richmond, VA.

Fig. 3: 12Z GFS maximum temperature forecast for Wednesday.

Thursday Outlook: The excessive heat aerial coverage is similar to Wednesday but STRONGER. Readings approaching 108F are possible in Dallas and Columbia, SC (Fig. 4). Heat index is into critical territory…near or above 115F in Texas and the Southeast U.S. The long duration heat and lack of recovery at night has a cumulative effect on demand of the electric grids and subtracting moisture from soils.

Fig. 4: 12Z GFS maximum temperature forecast for Thursday.

Friday Outlook: The ERCOT/SERC heat wave becomes explosive. Potential for widespread 105-110F is forecast for next Friday (Fig. 5). Heat index shifts into the 115-120F zone with this heat.

Fig. 5: 12Z GFS maximum temperature forecast for Friday.