Madden Julian oscillation shifts to phase_4/phase_5 and strengthens over the next 2 weeks according to ECMWF. The convection pattern in the tropics of the West Pacific suggests this pattern has already developed. An increase in West Pacific tropical cyclone activity and above normal rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia to Australia is likely. Conversely, the subsidence phase of MJO shifts across South America.

ECM "weeklies" have been helpful identifying periods of anomalous rainfall in the deep tropics/subtropics implying presence of tropical cyclone activity. The model is persistent at producing that risk for the west-central/central North Atlantic tropics/subtropics through October.

A review of Tropical Disturbance 98L and expectations that this system will intensify and drift into the Gulf of Mexico next week while possibly reaching major hurricane intensity.

GFS and ECM are becoming consistent projecting a significant tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico next week. The latest GFS forecast indicates a major hurricane into the Florida Peninsula in 9-10 days and then roaring northward bringing wind and rain to the entire East Coast. Obviously, a long-range forecast but persistence of models and tendency for extreme weather events requires identifying the risk NOW. This system is in its infancy in the central North Atlantic tropics now.