A “perfect storm” emerged just-off Brisbane on the central East Coast of Australia yesterday. A small but intense area of upper-level difluence above an equally intense area of low-level conflue4nce created a “chimney effect” to drive a super convective storm which extended inland unloading record rainfall for Brisbane and surrounding communities.

The East Atlantic/Western Russia 15-day forecast reveals a moderate-to-strong positive phase developing during the medium-range. Supported is an evolving colder and (more) snowy pattern in the Black Sea region.

A pattern change is welcomed news for Brazil. A semi-permanent low-pressure area southeast of Brazil present much of summer was responsible for heavy rain and frequent flooding. The 15-day outlook indicates a pattern change...high-pressure over southeastern Brazil which promises a drier climate heading into early March while Argentina turns wet.

Another major rainfall/flooding/landslide event has taken place in Brazil this time in Petropolis located in the hills above Rio de Janeiro and following historical rainfall/flooding events in Sao Paolo in late January and Minas Gerais in mid-January. The excessive rainfall events in Brazil have been common during summer 2021-22 extending westward from the Brazil Coast to Central/Southwest Brazil.