MJO/Very Warm Mediterranean Sea Maintain Hot/Dry Europe Pattern

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Fig. 1-4: Latest GFS 15-day forecast of temperature and precipitation anomalies across Europe, the 15-day upper air forecast and MJO-induced heavy tropical Africa rains.

Discussion: The intense heat in U.K. fades. However, GFS trends hotter/drier in the 15-day forecast. The anomalous heat remains widespread while shifting slightly eastward. The heat core moves into East/Southeast Europe to finish July (Fig. 1). The precipitation pattern also trends drier (Fig. 2) due to the amplified upper ridge pattern stretching from Morocco to Eastern Europe (Fig. 3). The sustained hot weather is propelled by very warm SSTA off West Europe and particularly in the Mediterranean Sea. More important, phase_1 of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) intensifies the tropical Africa ITCZ (Fig. 4) and the attendant convection sustains latent heat release pole ward to strengthen the subtropical ridge causing the Europe heat. Of course, a primary concern is expanding drought (Fig. 5).  

Fig. 5: Daily soil moisture anomalies across Europe.