La Nina climate to persist into early Q2/2023. A warm autumn; very dry Mid-south States. Winter is cold North/stormy East-central and warm elsewhere.
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Executive Summary: The Climate Impact Company U.S. season 1-3 ahead forecast valid for meteorological autumn 2022, winter 2022-23 and spring 2023 is issued. The forecast is based on a constructed analog (please see methodology on CIC client pages). High impact highlights include a warm autumn season featuring very dry weather in the Mid-south States. Autumn tropical cyclone risk is highest in Florida and the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Next winter is cold and snowy across the North-central U.S. while the South and East enjoy a mild season. During winter, the East-central U.S. is stormy. Next spring stays chilly and wet across the North while the South and East are warm.
Methodology: The Climate Impact Company Season 1-3 Ahead Climate Forecast for North America is valid for meteorological autumn 2022, winter 2022-23 and spring 2023. The forecast is based on a constructed analog. The leading climate forecast parameters are ENSO and regional SSTA regimes such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). Given the persistent weak La Nina (and stronger La Nina climate) the ENSO influence on the forecast weighs heavily into next spring. The Pacific decadal oscillation generally coincides with ENSO phase. If so, the La Nina signal is enhanced. The current cool PDO/LA Nina condition is possible into early next year. The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) identifies the amount of warm fuel to propel an active hurricane season ahead and also foreshadow subtropical ridge area locations and their strength. Although more difficult to analog, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) phase is also projected for the cold season. The SSTA analog is used coincidentally with the long-lead International Multi-Modal Ensemble (IMME) to correlate with past upper air patterns and their sensible temperate/precipitation anomaly schemes to project the season 1-3 ahead outlook.
SEP/OCT/NOV 2022: Autumn 2022 is warmer than normal across almost all of the U.S. The warmest anomalies for the 90-day season are centered on the Southwest States and New England. September is the warmest anomalous month, essentially an extension of August heat. During September, tropical cyclone risk is evident on the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard. October trends wetter in the Midwest to Northeast States. The Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States are vigorously warm during October. Nationally, November is a dry month, and in the East, a late autumn chill is in the air. The 90-day season is very dry in the Mid-south states where drought strengthens. The Southwest States to California are dry during autumn season. The East is the wet zone.
Fig. 1-2: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for SEP/OCT/NOV 2022.
DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23: The winter 2022-23 outlook is cold across the North-central U.S. with piling snows most evident in Montana and the Midwest States. Elsewhere, the winter is mild especially across the Southeast States. A classic La Nina climate produces dryness across the southern states plus California. The long-term drought in California is unprecedented. The outlook indicates a robust storm track across the Mid-south States to the eastern Ohio Valley. New England becomes snowy mid-to-late winter. The outlook favors a mild start to winter in the West and Central U.S. while the East is temperate. Mid-winter brings a slightly colder than normal regime across the East. February is very cold in the North-central U.S. while the East is exceptionally mild.
Fig. 3-4: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23.
MAR/APR/MAY 2023: The Northern U.S. cold tendency lingers next spring. Late season snows will enable the cold. Most of the Central and East is wetter than normal. The immediate East Coast is dry. The South and East enjoy an exceptionally warm spring season. The Southwest States to Texas are drier than normal.
Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company temperature/precipitation anomaly climate forecast for MAR/APR/MAY 2023.