News
11/22/2022, 8:17 am EST

Marine Heat Waves Dominate Australia/South America Climate Pattern

Getting the most (research) attention regarding a new phenomenon referred to as marine heat waves (MHW) is typically the Northeast Pacific MHW and more recently in research published in Journal of Climate, the East Asia/West Pacific MHW. However, the southern hemisphere has certainly acquired large areas of surface/subsurface water much warmer than normal and well-correlated to upper atmosphere pressure patterns somewhat stagnant in character leading to long lasting climate regimes featuring both very wet and dry-to-drought regimes.
11/20/2022, 12:32 pm EST

Evolving Arctic Air Mass is Possible in Russia

The mega-cluster ensemble indicates an area of cold weather in Russia may strengthen and intensify over the next 15 days driven in-part by above normal snow cover which recently reached Eastern Europe.
11/18/2022, 10:43 am EST

December/January 2022-23 Monthly Wind and Solar Outlook

EXPERIMENTAL Zonal/Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast EXPERIMENTAL Specific Humidity Anomaly Forecast Valid: December 2022 and January 2023 Methodology discussion: The December/January 2022-23 zonal/meridional wind and solar forecast is based on a constructed analog (CA). The constructed analog identifies regional sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) that influence North America climate. Past similar SSTA regimes are accumulated, and their correlating climate patterns are used to project the most likely climate scenarios going forward from the next two months to generate this forecast. The wind/relative humidity anomaly forecast is experimental. Zonal (west-east) and meridional (north-south) anomalies are projected for wind generation use. The relative humidity at 850 MB (5,000 feet) is used to project low cloud potential interference with sunlight and similarly at 300 MB (30,000 feet) to project potential interference from high (cirrus) clouds.    Climate discussion: The CIC-CA forecast presented is based on the projected significant influence on North America climate of a persistent La Nina, Northeast Pacific marine heat wave and the combination of a warmer than normal North Atlantic basin coupled with a large cool pool of ocean water south and southeast of Greenland referred to as the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH). December/January 2022-23 wind forecast: In December, the projected upper air pattern based on the CIC-CA forecast renders a persistent cold upper trough in Central Canada. However, the attendant cold and snow is likely to stay mostly in Canada while a milder and drier Pacific zonal flow stretches across the U.S. In December, zonal wind speed anomalies are stronger than normal across Western Canada and into the northwest quadrant of the U.S. (Fig. 1). Above normal zonal wind is also likely across wind power generating areas of Western Texas. However, elsewhere zonal wind speed anomalies are generally near normal. The meridional wind speed anomalies are well below normal on the West Coast and Nevada (Fig. 2). However, above normal north-south wind speeds are prevalent across the Southeast and East U.S. In January, above normal zonal wind speed continues across Southwest Canada and the leeward Rocky Mountains southward through Texas (Fig. 3). Below normal zonal wind speed anomalies are indicated for the Southwest and Northeast U.S. The meridional wind speed anomaly forecast for mid-winter indicates mostly below normal values for much of the U.S. (Fig. 4). In summary, the CIC-CA wind speed anomaly forecast for DEC/JAN 2022-23 does not indicate unusually anomalous wind speeds for wind power generation areas with the possible exception of Texas. Fig. 1-2: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during December 2022. Fig. 3-4: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during January 2023. December/January 2022-23 solar forecast: Interestingly, the December outlook features a nationally below normal relative humidity (RH) forecast at 850 MB with strongest anomalies in California and the leeward Southern Rockies (Fig. 5). Implied is below normal cloud cover for much of the U.S. at 5,000 feet where most clouds producing precipitation occur. December could be an unusually dry month for the U.S. At 30,000 feet where cirrus could hinder sunlight intensity, the December 300 MB RH anomaly forecast is below normal across the Southwest U.S. especially California (Fig. 6). Sunlight intensity is at an annual minimum during DEC/JAN although in December sunlight amount is likely much above normal for solar power generation areas across the Southwest U.S. In January, the below normal RH pattern at both the low and high cloud etage continues across much of the U.S. (Fig. 7-8). Fig. 5-6: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during December 2022. Fig. 7-8: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during January 2023.  
11/17/2022, 8:54 am EST

Hot/dry Summer Argentina; Most (Not All) of Brazil Avoids Drought

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) climate forecast for South America during meteorological summer 2022-23 indicates persistent anomalous heat and dryness in Argentina where flash drought is quite possible. The dryness extends to Southeast Brazil although less consistent. Far Southeast Brazil has a drought risk for summer 2022-23. The remainder of Brazil Crop Areas is normally wet with diminished drought risk.