After nearly 3 months of an active MJO near and west of the Dateline in the tropics a change is ahead...the MJO will shift east toward the tropical Atlantic and Africa in 7+ days. Coincidentally, the positive arctic oscillation collapses. A colder northern hemisphere climate evolves in 10+ days including North America AND Eurasia.

At risk of several to 10+ in. of rain is anywhere from northeast Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s) based on a consensus of the 15-day rainfall forecast by GFS, ECM and CMC. The severe weather threat zone will be Texas and the Missouri Valley.

The most remarkable soil moisture regimes are the persistent and historic wet soil moisture regimes across eastern tropical Africa and India. The wet soils in this area are the result of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole which peaked in intensity last October. Warm SSTA across the tropical Indian Ocean may try to sustain this wet pattern despite the collapse of the +IOD.

During well-established La Nina events (such as 2007-09 and 2010-12) the PMM is steadily negative. Forecast models are indicating La Nina risk for later in 2020.