An amplifying upper-level low-pressure trough is forecast to settle over Europe through mid-May causing excessive rainfall from Southern Europe to Southwest Russia. Much of Europe turns much cooler due to the long-lasting storm. The Eastern Europe to Southwest Russia drought certainly receives some wet relief in this pattern. However, Western Europe is dry.

The opinion of Climate Impact Company is that -IOD generation – which is expected – will regenerate La Nina for later this year which would enhance seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin.

The dry duration forecast through the next 10 days is a full 240 hours across parts of the Upper Midwest and Midwest States as areas missing the heavy rains of April are watching for drought development. In the Black Sea region where strong drought persists, a wetter pattern change is indicated into mid-May.

The Indian Ocean dipole is in the positive phase although forecast to shift neutral as mid-year approaches. Forecast models/analogs suggest that if ENSO trend is toward (or into) La Nina during Q3/2025 the risk of -IOD developing increases substantially.