A major U.S. storm is ahead featuring a Nebraska blizzard, Mid-South U.S. tornado outbreak and 10 in. of rain across northern Florida is ahead inspired by interaction of mid-latitude storms entraining deep subtropical moisture provided by the tropical East Pacific Madden Julian oscillation. The event is a possible sign of El Nino climate onset. El Nino will be with us well into 2019.

An unusually large portion of the U.S. have excessive wet soil moisture. Projections are much of the U.S. east of the Continental Divide enter the 2019 warm season with wet soils.

The operational European model indicates a stratospheric warming event across central and northeast Asia mid-next week. The stratospheric warming event causes arctic air to rapidly generate in Central Russia late next week and just as quickly surge westward into Europe late month.

What are the leading influences on North America winter 2018-19 climate? Typical of climate patterns of recent years ENSO has a diminished role despite presence of an El Nino likely to gain strength. The lead modes of climate influence are the warmer than normal Pacific Ocean in the tropics and northern latitudes near the Dateline and the warmer than normal Norwegian Sea. The accumulative effect of an inactive sun may also be helping to induce increased cold risk.