01/08/2020, 2:10 pm EST

January 2020 ENSO Outlook: La Nina Risk by Summertime

The NMME, CFS V2 and GFDL global SSTA forecast models each develop La Nina by summertime. Coupled with much warmer-than-normal middle latitude SSTA in the North Pacific and North Atlantic forecasts there is potential for widespread anomalous heat and dryness this summer season in the U.S. coupled with a dangerous North Atlantic tropical cyclone season.
01/07/2020, 3:48 pm EST

The Profound Influence on Asia/Australia Soil Moisture by the +IOD

The intense positive phase of the Indian ocean Dipole brought heavy rains to South Asia while drying Australia. The pattern is now fading.
01/02/2020, 5:39 am EST

Robust West Pacific Madden Julian Oscillation to Develop

Many implications beyond the U.S. warm-up are indicated. Most important is the increase in tropical convection north of Australia leading to heavy rains in Indonesia and increased risk of tropical cyclone activity. The wet weather frequently shifts south to affect Australia where rainfall is desperately needed.
12/30/2019, 11:11 am EST

La Nina Forecasts Popping Up

In a bit of a surprise some global forecast models are indicating risk of weak La Nina developing during or just-after mid-2020.