The Nino SSTA regions (and subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean) indicate a warming trend in the already very warm central and east-central Pacific equatorial region (Nino34 and Nino4). Implied is an approaching peak of El Nino forecast by most dynamic models in December or January followed by weakening El Nino the first half of 2024.

Heavy rain along a low-pressure trough stretches through East Australia today. The wet pattern has no end in sight as a supporting upper-level low-pressure area coupled with the surface trough persists the remainder of November. Forecast models are in good agreement on a widespread 2-6-inch rainfall for Eastern Australia through the next 15 days.

A review of the just-issued NOAA/CPC long-lead probabilistic climate forecast for DEC-23 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24 with the anomaly projections from Climate Impact Company plus initial insight into the summer 2024 forecast. NOAA and CIC are similarly warm in the East for winter 2023-24 while CIC is colder West. Both forecasts agree on a vigorous (mostly) Southern U.S. storm track.

Last week widespread wet weather was observed across Australia. The wet weather is a surprise given the dry climate usually produced by El Nino and certainly evident in October. Latest week 2-4 forecast for Australia maintains the wetter than normal regime into December.