12/20/2022, 5:57 am EST

Top Concern with Incoming Polar Vortex is Extreme Wind

A cold blast of arctic air will surge into the Great Plains midweek rapidly charging to the Gulf of Mexico and moderating into the East. A primary concern is the extremely tight pressure gradient between a 1060 MB arctic high over Montana Thursday and a 980 MB low over Michigan Friday which will cause wind gusts from 55 to 70 mph (or more) in the Upper Midwest, Midwest, Great Lakes region and into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. The immediate Atlantic Seaboard is also at risk for very high wind on Friday.
12/19/2022, 4:01 pm EST

La Nina Is Now Weakening

Last week, the Nino SSTA regions were warmer. Three of the four Nino SSTA regions remain within the La Nina threshold. The Nino34 SSTA is -0.9C which is moderate strength La Nina but slightly warmer than the previous week.
12/15/2022, 8:11 am EST

Major East U.S. Snowfall Days 6-10 Followed by Vigorous Cold Days 11-15

Forecast confidence is increasing for a significant snowstorm in the East later next week. ECM has an incredible amount of snow across the entire northeast quadrant of the U.S. while GFS focuses heavy snow on Virginia. With snow on the ground and following arctic air, the East will be super cold for Christmas Day and for a few days that follow.
12/14/2022, 8:31 pm EST

Clearway Energy January/February 2023 Wind/Solar Outlook

EXPERIMENTAL Zonal/Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast EXPERIMENTAL Relative Humidity Anomaly Forecast Valid: January and February 2023 Methodology discussion: The December/January 2022-23 zonal/meridional wind and solar forecast is based on a constructed analog (CA). The constructed analog identifies regional sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) that influence North America climate. Past similar SSTA regimes are identified, and their correlating climate patterns calculated and used to project the most likely climate scenarios for the next two months to produce this forecast. The wind speed/relative humidity anomaly forecast is experimental. Zonal (west-east) and meridional (north-south) anomalies are projected for wind generation use. The relative humidity at 850 MB (5,000 feet) is used to project low cloud potential interference with sunlight and similarly at 300 MB (30,000 feet) to project sunlight potential interference from high (cirrus) clouds.    Climate discussion: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) forecast is based on a regression for December 2022 using a robust negative phase of the arctic oscillation (-AO) and presence of La Nina. The unique combination of these two climate diagnostics was found in 6 years (in this century). Projecting the following most likely climate for January and February using this methodology accounts for the wind speed and solar forecast in this report. January/February 2023 wind forecast: The ferocious arctic outbreak in December is forecast to dissipate and be replaced by a somewhat milder regime for January. Expect a major weather pattern change to initiate during the first third of the month. Despite the major weather pattern change anticipated, the zonal and meridional wind speed anomalies are not particularly impressive during January (Fig. 1-2). Below normal wind speeds (both zonal and meridional) are forecast across Ontario/Quebec and into New England during mid-winter. Above normal wind speeds are projected across Florida. Western Canada will have above normal northerly wind, most likely the last third of the month. There is lack of significant wind in the primary wind generating areas of the Southwest U.S. to Texas. During February, another pattern change is expected. Likely occurring during the first third of the month is another arctic outbreak possibly similar to the second half of December 2022 episode. The early-to-middle February chill is replaced by a warmer pattern late in the month. The CIC-CA wind speed forecast appears understated given the dramatic weather pattern changes expected. Zonal wind speeds are lighter than normal across Central/East Canada and stronger than normal in Florida (Fig. 3). Meridional wind speeds are stronger than normal across the Canadian Prairies and that set of anomalies could easily extend across the Great Plains especially the first half of the month from the north due to another cold air outbreak from Canada (Fig. 4). The meridional wind speeds across the Northeast are notably lighter than normal. In the primary wind generating areas the CIC-CA forecast yields a lack of anomalous strong wind. Fig. 1-2: The experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during January 2023. Fig. 3-4: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during February 2023. January/February 2023 solar forecast: As previously indicated, a cold (December) to warm national climate transition is expected in January. The 850 MB relative humidity (RH) forecast yields above normal cloudiness on the West Coast including all of California suggesting above normal precipitation (Fig. 5). Lower clouds hold down the potential sunlight on the West Coas States. Additionally, above normal cloud cover at 850 MB is projected across the Tennessee Valley and southeastern Great Plains. Elsewhere below normal 850 MB RH is expected. High clouds located at 300 MB are projected near to below normal during mid-winter (Fig. 6). Minimal high cloudiness is projected across Florida. In February, above normal cloudiness is projected across California and the Southwest U.S. at both low and high level implying above normal precipitation risk (Fig. 7-8). Low clouds are above normal across the southern Great Plains to the Ohio Valley. At 300 MB, RH is below normal across the Northwest, North-central, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic States. The Southeast can expect above normal sunlight in February. Fig. 5-6: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during January 2023. Fig. 7-8: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during February 2023.