02/11/2024, 10:02 am EST

Tracking Mid-February Arctic Air

The surge of MJO convection past the Dateline in the tropical Pacific helped to motivate a Pacific “atmospheric river” storm track bringing “bomb cyclones” to California. Speculated is the latent heat release from this MJO episode may have traveled upward and poleward in the atmosphere to trigger a 3rd stratospheric warming event in the polar region. Of course, the consequence of stratospheric warming is generation of arctic air at ground level.
02/07/2024, 5:04 am EST

Brazil and Middle East Drought to Worsen, Southeast Asia/Indonesia Reverse Wetter Ahead

Strengthening drought was observed during NOV/DEC/JAN 2023-24 in Central Brazil, Northwest Africa, the Middle East, and Central Indonesia. El Nino 2023-24 has shifted past the mature stage. The outlook is for rapid deceleration to neutral ENSO during MAR/APR/MAY 2024. Drought concern is highest across Central Brazil to Chile, the Middle East, and South Africa. A climate pattern change to a wetter scenario is projected for Southeast Asia and Indonesia.
02/06/2024, 8:26 am EST

Colder Pattern Change U.S. But Arctic Air In-Doubt For Now

The day-10 temperature anomaly forecast at 10 MB reveals a stratospheric warming episode over northwestern North America. The warming causes an arctic air mass to develop over Northwest Russia in the 6-10-day period. On day-15, the stratospheric warming is widening and, frankly, looks scary as widespread arctic air is normally produced by this signature. However, for now, the “most likely” scenario is arctic air moves east across Eurasia and is shifting southeastward toward China much like the outbreak in December.
02/05/2024, 5:55 am EST

Colder U.S. Pattern Change Ahead; Arctic Air Adheres to Snow Cover

Forecast models generally doubt a major arctic outbreak into the U.S. ahead. The coldest possibility is presented by the mega-cluster ensemble rating widespread cold in 15 days (Feb. 20) at 23% risk. The most likely scenario, given the evidence available, is sharp cold risk to areas with snow cover near the U.S./Canada border east of the Continental Divide. Cold weather traveling south of where snow cover is located is brief and will moderate.