08/31/2022, 4:07 pm EDT

China Drought Persists as Hinnamnor Misses to the East; U.S. Drought Expansion

Category-4 Typhoon Hinnamnor just-misses China to the east this weekend as intense drought continues. The immense California heatwave ahead peaks in strength next Tuesday. NOAA 30-day forecasts widen Midwest and Northeast drought while implicating Louisiana for September hurricanes.
08/30/2022, 8:12 am EDT

ECMWF Week 2-5 Outlook: The Important Storms Likely to Emerge in Gulf of Mexico

ECMWF indicates the most likely location for tropical cyclones to develop that can become hurricanes and make landfall on the U.S. Coast is in the Gulf of Mexico for the last third of September and into early October. This season's core activity arrives late and lasts longer than usual!
08/28/2022, 8:56 am EDT

Suppressed Tropics in August About to Change?

Circumstances leading to an unusually dry mid-troposphere during August should start to ease in early September and allow tropical cyclone development to occur and flourish in some sectors. Tropical Disturbance 91L in the central North Atlantic tropics has a chance to become a tropical cyclone while an uptick in southwest Gulf of Mexico and outer North Atlantic tropics activity is likely by late this week.
08/26/2022, 8:19 am EDT

ECM Week 1-6 Outlook Suggests Peak of Tropical Cyclone Season is Around October 1st in North Atlantic

ECMWF indicates the low relative humidity in the low-to-middle troposphere across the central North Atlantic tropics inhibiting August tropical cyclone development eases very slowly in September and not until late month and early October is that pattern favorable for widespread tropical threats. A late peak of season this year!