The updated Climate Impact Company summer 2026 outlook indicates a hotter than normal summer season across much of the U.S., especially the Northwest to California and Gulf States while wet climate suppresses anomalous heat risk in the Midwest. Drought expands northwestward in the West and develops Mid-south to Texas later in the summer season.

During May, D2-D4 drought conditions develop in North Dakota and expand by 3-7% in South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma. The weeklies forecast for May indicate each state in the Great Plains is generally drier than normal with best chance of thundershowers later in the month when the pattern turns warmer than normal.

As the upper trough deepens in the East next week, a compensating upper ridge crests over Southwest Canada. Copious mid-to-high-level mountain snow melts with peak warming early next week. Serious flooding is possible in this scenario!

According to NOAA, aerial coverage of global marine heatwaves (MHW) is 27%. The forecast for aerial coverage from early this year, valid for March, was 23%. Consequently, MHW presence is over-achieving. NOAA is forecasting MHW aerial coverage to increase to 40% later this year, in part due to El Nino.