Tropical Storm Narelle rests over the coastal northwest portion of Australia soon to move offshore and begin to redevelop. In 4-5 days, Narelle reaches category-2 or category-3 intensity moving into the northwest coast of Western Australia. Through 10 days, the West Coast region of Australia is very wet.

The wetter pattern change begins to emerge in the 11-15-day period, has developed in the 16-20-day period, and expands in the 16-30-day period. The core of the heavier rain is unclear based on the latest CFS, ECM, and GC forecasts.

The effect of the Middle East War on energy supply and prices increases the value of U.S. cooling degree day projections for the 2026 warm season. Provided is a monthly discussion of expectations and charts for each NOAA/EIA region of the U.S.

The latest 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast by ECM unloads heavy rain on Argentina. The wet forecast is supported, at least through the next 10 days, by an upper-level low-pressure trough off the Chilean Coast where SSTA continue much above normal adding to the risk of potential significant rainfall.