10/16/2018, 2:03 pm EST

Historically Intense Polar Vortex is About to Meet El Nino Warming

The strongest polar vortex on record as defined by the arctic oscillation and especially the North Atlantic oscillation indices has occurred in 2018. +AO/+NAO contributed to the 4th warmest warm season on record for the U.S. and also caused historical Europe drought. Now...due to seasonality...the strong polar vortex is producing record early season snow cover across Canada enabling cold air generation infiltrating the U.S. pattern. Meanwhile immense equatorial subsurface warming is ready to ignite what may be a strong El Nino. The warming influence of El Nino will clash the chilly polar vortex regime by late autumn in North America causing more extreme climate.
10/12/2018, 4:14 am EST

A Warm Ocean Leads to a Big Year for Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

A whopping 165% of normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has been observed in 2018 through October 11 across the ocean basins of the northern hemisphere. The East Pacific is a leading contributor (247% of normal) plus an over-achieving North Atlantic basin (130% of normal). A leading contributor to the well above normal activity is a warmer than normal ocean.
10/09/2018, 10:26 am EST

Bureau of Meteorology/Australia Fortifies El Nino Forecast for 2018-19

There's no denying the immense warmth in the equatorial Pacific subsurface and (now) recent warming of the NINO SSTA regions. A fortified El Nino ahead adjustment is made to the Bureau of Meteorology/Australia forecast.
10/07/2018, 7:23 pm EST

Re-Amplifying Upper Ridge To Extend European Drought

In September the super dry pattern of the 2018 warm season across Europe continued. Less than 50% of normal rainfall was observed across much of Southeast Europe, France and parts of north/northeast Europe plus Portugal into Spain and Italy. The climate pattern causing the drought initiated last spring and continues into autumn likely intensifying the next 2+ weeks.