02/04/2020, 2:43 pm EST

Madden Julian Oscillation ALERT

An intense MJO phase_6 is ahead for mid-February. Implications are excessive rains for East Australia and more warm weather for the East U.S. with heavy precipitation East-central U.S.
02/03/2020, 2:08 pm EST

NCEP Models Stronger With La Nina for JUN/JUL/AUG 2020

Despite no signs of an approaching La Nina right now the NCEP CFS V2 model is trending stronger with a previous La Nina forecast arriving for JUN/JUL/AUG 2020. Other global models (NMME and GFDL) also indicate the evolving La Nina entering quarter 3 of 2020.
02/02/2020, 9:16 am EST

A Much Warmer Than Normal Meteorological Winter (So Far) for the Northern Hemisphere

The northern hemisphere meteorological winter (so far) has been ROBUSTLY warmer than normal featuring historical warmth in northwest Russia, very warm conditions across much of the U.S. and eastern Canada, Europe, Russia and eastern China. The primary contributor to this warmth is a robust positive phase of the arctic oscillation in January (and the first half of December) and widespread warmer-than-normal northern hemisphere ocean surface.
01/29/2020, 1:09 pm EST

Stratospheric warming may real this time. Triggers possible arctic outbreak!

A stratospheric warming episode is forecast across northwest and north portions of North America in 8-12 days and is likely to spawn an arctic air mass which impacts the U.S.