The convective phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to strengthen in the same position over the next 2 weeks possibly lingering into March. To compensate for this vast region of convection, the downstream effect is an area of subsidence extending across South America. The influence on climate is profound. The immediate important influences include an expansive very heavy rainfall pattern over Southeast Asia, the eastern Indian Ocean and Indonesia while the influence on South America is to make the climate drier.

The morning medium-range forecast indicates a westward shift in the East U.S. mid-winter cold pattern. Support for the westward shift of the cold is most apparent in the 8-14/11-15-day period when the Pacific North America index flips to negative phase and the North Atlantic oscillation becomes positive. The implied eastern warm-up is suppressed by snow cover.

The 2011 and 2021 ENSO/PDO/AMO regimes are strikingly similar. In January of the following year, this regime produced nationally dry soils in January 2012 which was followed by a bad drought during the following summer. Climate Impact Company is closely following a similar climate pattern into early 2022 which could lead to important drought for summertime ahead!