01/31/2018, 11:35 am EST

The ENSO Forecast Dilemma for 2018

The extended-range ENSO forecast is uncertain as models vary from sustained La Nina to a possible El Nino onset. Tracking the dynamics of the subsurface over the next 2-3 months is the best diagnostic to determine ENSO phase into mid-2018.
01/25/2018, 8:45 pm EST

Titanic Madden Julian Oscillation Episode Ahead

A massive area of tropical convection is forecast to organize north and northeast of Australia next week. Forecast models indicate widespread 12+ inches of rain within this massive area of thunderstorms. Australia will see at least some of that rain. Expect major influence on North America climate!
01/22/2018, 9:44 pm EST

Wham! Bam! -AAM! Explains Hostile Global Weather in January 2018

The strongest negative phase of global atmospheric angular momentum (-AAM) index for January on record is projected. Included are daily records of -AAM rivaled only by 1963 (CWG/Storm Vista Data). –AAM is common during La Nina. The –AAM indicates above normal risk of high amplitude flow patterns in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres which increase the risk of high impact weather. During the past 2-3 weeks we’ve seen 75-100 mph wind gust events in New England, Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands plus New Zealand and record long duration cold in the U.S. while Australia set 80-year records for anomalous heat. –AAM was the culprit.
01/17/2018, 3:26 pm EST

Why La Nina Was Weak? No -PDO!

All La Nina's are not the same but this one was really different and unusually weak. Normally, waters in the southeast North Pacific are cooler than normal during a La Nina episode characteristic of cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation. But not in 2017. Surface water southwest of California remains unusually warm. This latest "warm blob" prevented, in-part La Nina from realizing more intensity.