The 2019-20 U.S. cold season monthly population weight HDD ranks indicate a chilly start (November 4th coldest) and end (April ranked 3rd coldest) of the season with exceptionally warm climate through the core of the winter season lead by the 2nd warmest January in the 20-year climatology.

Soil moisture remains above normal to excessive across the U.S. agriculture belts BUT below normal precipitation the past 90+ days centered on the Corn Belt especially in April is leading to easing of the wet soils (and this pattern may continue).

An intense upper trough over the Tennessee Valley shifts east slowly causing more severe storms in the Southeast and excessive rainfall Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States. Flood watch areas are posted for the entire Mid-Atlantic region.

Forecast confidence is increasing in regard to negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole developing for Australian winter which supports a wet climate across most Australian crop areas.