The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is forecast to shift eastward across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the next 2 weeks. Following passage of the MJO, equatorial wind shifts to west or southwest and eliminates trade winds. The lack of trade winds eliminates the up-welling process that sustains La Nina. Oceanic La Nina 2020-23 likely dissipates by March 1st.

January 2023 ranked 6th warmest in the 129-year climatology. Most of the eastern half of the U.S. was MUCH ABOVE normal during January including all-time-record warmth in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey.

The January 2023 sunspot number was 143, well over the already adjusted forecasts. Observational implications are that solar cycle 25 will continue to progress at much higher sunspot number rates than forecast ultimately cresting at values similar to, or higher than the last stronger solar cycle maxima (number 23) observed around 2000.

There is a strong tendency for amplified broad-scale upper-level high-pressure ridge areas to form across and downwind MWH episodes. No exception is the exposure South America has to this phenomenon as meteorological summer 2022-23 has produced a titanic upper-level ridge east of Argentina extending across Argentina to cause drought in that country and aggravate long-term drought in Chile.