09/27/2019, 5:26 am EDT

What the Des Moines 15-day Max/Min forecast tells us about Corn Belt freeze potential

The western U.S. Corn Belt was under the gun for a freeze risk based on forecasts from earlie rthis week. The forecast seemed reasonable given the upstream Montana snows producinga cold air source region. But as this week's operational forecasts indicated the primary influence on the Corn Belt was warmer ahead of the cold front and wetter due to the slower movement of the front and no freeze as the big chill lagged well to the west.
09/24/2019, 11:12 am EDT

Bad Drought Developing in Southeast U.S. and Expanding

The Southeast U.S. to Mid-Atlantic States continue to dry-out RAPIDLY. A significant drought is devloping in these regions. Rainfall needed to neutralize strong negative PDSI values is over 15 in. across eastern Georgia and now 12-15 in. in southern Alabama.
09/20/2019, 7:51 am EDT

Imelda Flooding & Why It Happened

The combination of long duration of vividly effective dynamic forcing to produce extreme rainfall caused yet another historic rainfall episode in southeast Texas.
09/16/2019, 12:02 pm EDT

ENSO In Neutral Phase; A La Nina Trend

The equatorial East Pacific surface and subsurface is cooling steadily. The East-central to far eastern equatorial Pacific surface has cooled to below normal. The subsurface East Pacific equatorial region has also cooled. Neutral ENSO is in-place but the short-term trend is toward La Nina.