07/15/2020, 8:24 am EDT

MJO Causes Record Slow Start to West Pacific TC Season

The Pacific tropical basin has observed no significant tropical cyclone activity since early June including no category-3 systems, the first time in the satellite measuring era (since 1966) according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. Using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index the seasonal activity (so far) for the Pacific basin is 20% of normal.
07/14/2020, 11:18 am EDT

Precedent for North Atlantic TC Season When Main Development Region for Hurricanes is Much Warmer than Normal in June

In 2020 the likelihood of at least 10 hurricanes given the very warm TNA pattern and no suppressing El Nino is expected!
07/13/2020, 9:31 am EDT

The La Nina In 2020 Forecast Is In Jeopardy

The subsurface equatorial Pacific to the east of the Dateline is losing a moderate-strength cool signature which developed in May and signaled La Nina ahead. In recent weeks the cool anomaly has nearly disappeared. Subsurface support for La Nina evolution will need to rebuild.
07/08/2020, 1:40 pm EDT

Watching The Great Plains, Europe and Western Russia For Possible Summer Drought

For now, doubting a U.S. Corn Belt drought but flash drought is expected west/south Great Plains, Europe/Western Russia drought risk is uncertain although "gut" feel is important dryness emerges in August, Australia and Northern Brazil are cautiously forecast wetter.