La Nina 2021-22 peaks in January and fades to neutral phase during Q2/2022. El Nino risk is indicated for late 2022. The PDO regime which tends to run parallel to ENSO stays in the cool phase but is weaker for much of 2022. The North Atlantic warmth is likely to continue and be stronger than indicated by the analog forecast.

The November 2021 snow cover analysis by the Rutgers Snow Laboratory is complete. The data indicate the North America snow cover is lagging behind normal ranking 11th least snowy in the 56-year climatology. Meanwhile Eurasia is just-the-opposite ranking 9th snowiest since 1966.

Meteorological autumn (SEP/OCT/NOV) 2021 ranked 3rd warmest on record. Almost the entire nation ranked in the MUCH ABOVE normal category including California, the West-central and Southwest U.S., all of the Great Plains and into the Northeast States. Only Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina ranked near normal.

More heavy precipitation in the 5-day forecast for Southwest Canada and into Washington is indicated by GFS. The 6-10-day forecast has shown heavy precipitation into California this week but an upgrade to excessive amount is indicated today. New to the forecast is more excessive precipitation into California days 11-15. There is no direct connection to the tropics ALTHOUGH the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) shift toward the Dateline is definitely helping.