Yesterday’s rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) analysis from NOAA/CPC revealed the Midwest U.S. Drought worsened last week. Short-term forecasts indicate searing heat risk increase and limited rainfall ahead into next week as the drought will continue to worsen.

Oceanic El Nino continues to slowly strengthen and is now at moderate intensity. Subsurface warming is convening in the eastern equatorial Pacific to provide more ammunition to strengthen El Nino. However, the sustained 1-2-month-long negative southern oscillation index required to generate an El Nino climate has not yet materialized.

The historic California, Southwest U.S., and Texas heatwave of mid-July will expand across the U.S. to close the month. The risk of >100F shifts across much of the Great Plains to the Mid-south States in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, the risk of >100F shifts eastward through the southern Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic States.