09/01/2022, 12:14 pm EDT

Lingering TUTT Causing Shear to Inhibit North Atlantic TC Development

Presence of an upper-level low-pressure trough in the upper troposphere developed late last spring and lingered through meteorological summer. The upper trough is weaker in late August but still evident stretching from the Bahamas southwestward. The last time a tropical upper tropospheric trough was present during August in a vivid character was 2013 and during a weak La Nina climate.
08/28/2022, 8:56 am EDT

Suppressed Tropics in August About to Change?

Circumstances leading to an unusually dry mid-troposphere during August should start to ease in early September and allow tropical cyclone development to occur and flourish in some sectors. Tropical Disturbance 91L in the central North Atlantic tropics has a chance to become a tropical cyclone while an uptick in southwest Gulf of Mexico and outer North Atlantic tropics activity is likely by late this week.