07/14/2020, 11:18 am EDT

Precedent for North Atlantic TC Season When Main Development Region for Hurricanes is Much Warmer than Normal in June

In 2020 the likelihood of at least 10 hurricanes given the very warm TNA pattern and no suppressing El Nino is expected!
07/13/2020, 9:31 am EDT

The La Nina In 2020 Forecast Is In Jeopardy

The subsurface equatorial Pacific to the east of the Dateline is losing a moderate-strength cool signature which developed in May and signaled La Nina ahead. In recent weeks the cool anomaly has nearly disappeared. Subsurface support for La Nina evolution will need to rebuild.
07/08/2020, 1:40 pm EDT

Watching The Great Plains, Europe and Western Russia For Possible Summer Drought

For now, doubting a U.S. Corn Belt drought but flash drought is expected west/south Great Plains, Europe/Western Russia drought risk is uncertain although "gut" feel is important dryness emerges in August, Australia and Northern Brazil are cautiously forecast wetter.
07/03/2020, 9:54 am EDT

Assessing Central U.S. Drought Risk

Anomalous important heat risk is always important in July for the Great Plains. Heading into July the shallow soil moisture trend across most of the Great Plains is drier and deep layer soil moisture is dry in the western Great Plains. At a glance, the west/southwest Great Plains are at risk of an evolving drought and possibly a flash drought if sustained hot weather occurs. It’s mostly about temperature in July (unless gully-washer thunderstorms are occurring).