Suddenly, the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming rapidly as a Kelvin Wave emerges and is shifting east. Implied is a more certain dissipation of La Nina ahead. If another Kelvin Wave were to follow during Q2 of 2021 an El Nino risk emerges.

The flash drought/excessive heat regime observed in July 2012 was centered on the central Great Plains with attendant heat spread across most of the U.S. Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois observed all-time top-5 driest mid-summer months on record. The drought condition came on fast most likely due to developing high-pressure aloft across a vast area of deep layer soil moisture deficit. Despite the wet soils in parts of the Great Plains a dry Q2 of 2021 climate is forecast and 2012 is a summer 2021 analog forecast year.

Today NOAA/CPC issued new long-lead probabilistic climate forecasts. Of interest, is the summertime outlook. The temperature probability forecast indicates above normal risk of anomalous warmth for all states during JUN/JUL/AUG 2021 with highest risk across the Southwest States.

The February MJO had a profound influence on the environment of the equatorial East Pacific. The (MJO) event shut-down trade winds which eased the up-welling of cool subsurface water to maintain La Nina intensity.