The global soil moisture trend during the past 3 months brought historic wet changes to Texas, the Midwest U.S. and parts of the East U.S. In Europe drought intensified and expanded eastward while Australian drought weakened slightly. In South Africa the latest drought condition strengthened while northern Argentina into central Brazil turned wetter.

Coupling between the warming eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere to produce an El Nino climate is not occurring. For this reason other regional climate generators gain influence. One recent example is emergence of a very un-El Nino-like wet regime evolving in northeast Brazil.

A major U.S. storm is ahead featuring a Nebraska blizzard, Mid-South U.S. tornado outbreak and 10 in. of rain across northern Florida is ahead inspired by interaction of mid-latitude storms entraining deep subtropical moisture provided by the tropical East Pacific Madden Julian oscillation. The event is a possible sign of El Nino climate onset. El Nino will be with us well into 2019.

An unusually large portion of the U.S. have excessive wet soil moisture. Projections are much of the U.S. east of the Continental Divide enter the 2019 warm season with wet soils.