The ECM 30-day Madden Julian oscillation forecast indicates a phase_6 to phase_7 shift with intensity the second half of January followed by a phase_8 to phase_1 shift the first half of February. The phase_8 to phase_1 shift is eastward through the longitudes of the Americas and represents a hot and dry correlation to Australia climate.

The updated 15-day arctic oscillation (AO) forecast maintains a moderate to strong negative phase for the remainder of January eventually causing cold weather in each sector of the mid-latitude northern hemisphere. In Europe, short-term mild climate steadily fades into the deep freeze the last third of January.

Into mid-year through early next year, the South America climate forecast is primarily reliant on the arrival and intensification of El Nino. Forecast highlights include a hot and dry Southeast Brazil regime in February followed by a mostly dry Brazil during autumn while lingering anomalous heat affects Argentina. The winter season is milder than normal. Next spring and summer are mostly hotter/drier than normal across Brazil away from the coast.

The 15-day AO outlook strengthens the negative phase. The projected JAN-26 value is near -2.0 rivaled most recently by JAN-21 (-2.4) and JAN-10 (-2.6). Right now, arctic air mass stretches across Eurasia. During the 6-10-day period, the 500 MB anomaly outlook projects a “ridge bridge” over Alaska. The upper ridge causes a cross-polar low-level air mass trajectory taking arctic air from Russia into North America.