The SEP/OCT/NOV 2024 tropical cyclone activity forecast projects a still dangerous total of 12 storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 168. The activity forecast for the second half of the season is about 137% of the 30-year normal.

The end of July 2024 global marine heatwave assessment from NOAA indicated that 35% of the oceans are in marine heat wave status. The monthly observation ranks 14th highest in the nearly 400 months of observations dating back to 1991. NOAA indicates MHW coverage of 35% now will decrease to about 30% by October 2024.

After a month-long dormant period, the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) has reactivated over the tropical Indian Ocean. The 15-day forecast utilizing all operational models indicates MJO will move east to Maritime Continent over the next 15 days. The MJO enhances convection, certainly evident in the tropical Indian Ocean and surrounding areas (Africa, India, and Western Indonesia) now where heavy rain is occurring.