12/09/2022, 4:07 pm EST

November 2022 Wind/Solar Verification

Discussion: A tale of two regimes dominated the November 2022 U.S. climate pattern. In the West, a semi-permanent upper-level low-pressure trough caused almost the entire West to finish in the top 10 coldest late autumn seasons in the 1895-2022 historical record. Meanwhile, in the East, an upper ridge pattern with axis across the northern Mid-Atlantic States yielded all-time top 10 warm late autumn seasons for New England and Florida. The Southern States turned wetter than normal while the Midwest U.S. autumn dryness continued although less aggressively. In the U.S., cloud cover related to relative humidity (RH) at 5,000 feet (850 MB for “low” clouds) and 30,000 feet (300 MB for “high” clouds) was above normal for both levels in Florida and the Upper Midwest/South-central Canada (Fig. 1-2). Blow normal RH at each level identifying areas of above normal sunlight were observed across the northern half of California and Oregon. The Climate Impact Company forecast for November indicated a large area of below normal RH at 850 MB (Fig. 3). The forecast for below normal low-level cloudiness was too aggressive. Similarly, the low RH forecast at 300 MB for most of the U.S. implied widespread above normal sunlight (Fig. 4). However, only the West Coast observed above normal sunlight while the presence of above normal cirrus clouds to suppress sunlight was observed across the Southwest U.S. and much of Southern Canada. Fig. 1-2: November 2022 observed 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. Fig. 3-4: November 2022 forecast of 850 MB and 300 MB relative humidity anomalies. Areas with above normal zonal and/or meridional wind speeds during November 2022 were in short supply. Zonal wind anomalies were stronger than normal across North Dakota to Iowa and coastal New England during November. Below normal zonal wind speeds were dominant in the Continental Divide region and eastward across the Mid-south States to the Carolinas and Virginia (Fig. 5). Meridional wind speeds were above normal in Wisconsin and New England (Fig. 6). The Climate Impact Company November 2022 zonal wind speed forecast called for above normal across the northern tier of the U.S. (Fig. 7) and only the North-central States validated that claim. The tendency for less than normal zonal wind speed across the southern tier of the U.S. was hinted at by the CIC prediction. The November 2022 meridional wind speed anomaly forecast featured above normal for the Great Plains and Northeast U.S. (Fig. 8). Only parts of this large zone observed above normal meridional wind speeds in November. Fig. 5-6: November 2022 observed zonal and meridional wind anomalies. Fig. 7-8: November 2022 forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies.
12/06/2022, 8:17 pm EST

3rd Snowiest North America on Record for November

The November 2022 northern hemisphere snow cover was tied for 3rd most in the 1966-2022 record. In North America, November 2022 ranked 3rd most snowy on record while Eurasia was 12th most snowy of the past 57 years.
12/05/2022, 9:41 am EST

Forecast Models Projecting El Nino for Mid-to-late 2023 with Increasing strength

The NCEP FCS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues an aggressive trend that indicates ending of La Nina early in 2023 followed by a shift into El Nino middle of 2023. ECM is indicating a much stronger El Nino developing middle of 2023. Climate Impact Company will issue a new ENSO forecast for 2023 late this week!
12/04/2022, 4:49 pm EST

Cold Stratosphere = Warmer U.S. Forecast

Medium-range forecasts are trending warmer across North America and especially the U.S. The catalyst to this warmer trend is a cold stratosphere over the polar region stretching south across Canada as indicated by the GFS in 5 days. As a review, the cooling and constricting stratosphere is compensated for by the warming troposphere below. Consequently, the upper-level pattern in the troposphere creating our weather is less able to produce cold air and arctic air generation is cutoff. Arctic air already present will retreat to deep snow cover.