Florence is moving inland this morning in the Wilmington, NC area while much of the storm remains offshore today therefore sustaining hurricane conditions well into Friday night.

The Category 4 Hurricane Florence forecast track toward the North Carolina coast is straight-forward. However, what happens after Florence reaches the North Carolina coast is more uncertain. Evolution of a new tropical cyclone striking Texas late Friday and the influence on a new subtropical ridge over the Midwest U.S. could cause Florence to slow down and possibly shift southwestward this weekend.

Seasonal forecasts by leading providers indicated 5 hurricanes for the 2018 season. However, we're already to 5 and almost certain to eclipse 6-7 which is normal for a season given Sep. 10 is the halfway point of the tropical cyclone season. One of the reasons for increased number of hurricanes is the failure of EL Nino to develop as indicated by multivariate ENSO index which is a measure of the atmosphere's response to ENSO.

As observed last August, a large region of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the west/northwest North Atlantic basin correlated to a blocking high pressure ridge over northeast North America caused Major Hurricane Harvey to stall over Texas and produce 50 in. of rain in the Houston area. A similar set-up is in-place this week (into next) to cause Florence, forecast to become a major hurricane to also stall in the Mid-Atlantic region bringing historical and catastrophic flooding.