The Climate Impact Company constructed analog ENSO phase forecast using Nino34 SSTA reveals a short-term evolution of La Nina followed by mostly neutral ENSO by next March lasting into mid-2023.

The sunspot number for early October is around 50 which is well above the projected value based on the Sep. 10, 2021 forecast by NASA. In fact, the observation is above the 95th percentile forecast. Conservative forecasts for solar cycle 25 project a similar sunspot number at solar maxima in 2024-25 to the past solar peak occurring twice in 2011-12 and 2013-14. However, based on early trends, solar maximum for 2024-25 could be much stronger.

The October 2021 temperature anomaly outlook is ferocious warm Central and into the East. The GFS ENS is super warm east of the Continental Divide for most of the next 15 days and the remainder of October is likely to feature very little change. The West will cool-down and impressively so during the medium-range. However, the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. may receive a record warm mid-autumn.

The wet influence of negative phase Indian Ocean Dipole on Australian climate, particularly across southern areas is fading. However, a persistent La Nina climate may strengthen during quarter 4 of 2021 enabling more wet climate particularly for north and east portions of the continent.