An upper trough located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico spawning a massive amount of rain across the Gulf of Mexico affecting the coastal region. A careful watch late in the period for any subtropical/tropical low-pressure development.

A chilly outbreak remains in the 11-15-day forecast across Argentina into Southwest Brazil as meteorological winter 2025 arrives. There is marginal <32F/<0C risk in northeast Argentina with the season's first cool burst. The intensity of this potential event may be a guide on additional cold risk as wintertime arrives in South America.

Unusually cool weather across the East U.S. the last third of May but warmer changes in June are forecast by ECMWF including robust anomalous warmth for most of the U.S. by week-4 (June 8-14). A tendency for wet weather in the northwest Gulf region is likely to continue in June.

Large differences are regions of wet vs. dry soil across the Central and East U.S. are evident in the daily soil moisture anomaly analysis. The rainfall pattern is changeable and features significant events as organized drought risk heading toward meteorological summer is not weel-organized (except in the Southwest). The Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia drought receives relief from a showery pattern the next 2 weeks.