Excessive Heat Argentina, Hot Pattern Australia, Heavy Precipitation Returns to Europe, China chill.

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Fig. 1-2: Last week’s rainfall in South America and the daily soil moisture anomaly analysis.

Discussion: During the past week, patchy heavy rains have helped ease widespread dry soil conditions across Brazil (Fig. 1). The Argentina rainfall pattern has turned arid. Daily soil moisture analysis reveals the benefit of early summer rains to Argentina where patchy drought remains after the widespread La Nina 2020-22 drought condition (Fig. 2). The dry soil conditions across Brazil are receiving beneficial rains during the past week. The 10-day rainfall outlook across South America maintains dryness in Argentina and drier conditions spread north across all southern and western Brazil (Fig. 3). The dryness in Argentina is concerning due to the accompanying excessive heat (Fig. 4).

Fig. 3-4: The GFS 10-day precipitation anomaly and 15-day temperature anomaly forecast for South America.

Mid-summer has featured strong anomalous heat in parts of western and central Australia. This zone of intense heat strengthens in the 15-day forecast according to GFS (Fig. 5). The anomalous heat surges eastward into New South Wales during the time-period. The continental rainfall forecast is trending drier. Tropical moisture fuels thunderstorms mostly in Queensland while elsewhere is generally dry (Fig. 6).

Fig. 5-6: The GFS 15-day temperature anomaly and 10-day precipitation anomaly forecast for Australia.

Negative Scandinavia index (-SCAND) regenerates in the 8-14-day period causing a vigorous storm track to return to Europe. Much above normal precipitation is forecast by GFS for most of Europe including heavy snow for Northern Europe into Western Russia (Fig. 7). Meanwhile, the second cold outbreak of winter is ahead in the 8-14-day period in China (Fig. 8).

Fig. 7-8: The GFS 8-14-day percent of normal precipitation forecast across Europe and GFS 8-14-day temperature anomaly forecast for East Asia.