In the West, an expanding heatwave has developed. Excessive Heat Warnings cover most of California. The warning is valid through the weekend. Heat Advisories are posted for San Francisco and Los Angeles coastal areas. An Excessive Heat Watch is posted for Phoenix, AZ, Reno, NV, and Eastern Washington where excessive heat is likely to develop.

Category-5 Major Hurricane Beryl is confidently forecast to mover west to west-northwest across the Caribbean Sea through the next 60-72 hours. Forecast confidence lowers during and after passage of the Yucatan Peninsula. However, a turn more northwesterly to impact the Texas Coast on Sunday is an increasing risk!

The 4-5-day forecast track toward the Yucatan Peninsula is reasonably confident. However, once Beryl moves across the Yucatan, “track clusters” have mixed opinions on Beryl. The most confident forecast is a potential north turn (41.7%) while the second-most likely track is a continued due west course (37.9%). The least likely track is across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and eventually toward Texas (20.4%).

Due to rapid drying of soils in the East U.S., NOAA/CPC issues a statement on the likelihood of rapidly developing drought in the East U.S. due to limited rainfall and the acceleration of soil moisture drying by anomalous heat. A similar scenario for the western states!