EXPERIMENTAL Zonal/Meridional Wind Anomaly Forecast EXPERIMENTAL Specific Humidity Anomaly Forecast Valid: December 2022 and January 2023 Methodology discussion: The December/January 2022-23 zonal/meridional wind and solar forecast is based on a constructed analog (CA). The constructed analog identifies regional sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) that influence North America climate. Past similar SSTA regimes are accumulated, and their correlating climate patterns are used to project the most likely climate scenarios going forward from the next two months to generate this forecast. The wind/relative humidity anomaly forecast is experimental. Zonal (west-east) and meridional (north-south) anomalies are projected for wind generation use. The relative humidity at 850 MB (5,000 feet) is used to project low cloud potential interference with sunlight and similarly at 300 MB (30,000 feet) to project potential interference from high (cirrus) clouds.    Climate discussion: The CIC-CA forecast presented is based on the projected significant influence on North America climate of a persistent La Nina, Northeast Pacific marine heat wave and the combination of a warmer than normal North Atlantic basin coupled with a large cool pool of ocean water south and southeast of Greenland referred to as the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH). December/January 2022-23 wind forecast: In December, the projected upper air pattern based on the CIC-CA forecast renders a persistent cold upper trough in Central Canada. However, the attendant cold and snow is likely to stay mostly in Canada while a milder and drier Pacific zonal flow stretches across the U.S. In December, zonal wind speed anomalies are stronger than normal across Western Canada and into the northwest quadrant of the U.S. (Fig. 1). Above normal zonal wind is also likely across wind power generating areas of Western Texas. However, elsewhere zonal wind speed anomalies are generally near normal. The meridional wind speed anomalies are well below normal on the West Coast and Nevada (Fig. 2). However, above normal north-south wind speeds are prevalent across the Southeast and East U.S. In January, above normal zonal wind speed continues across Southwest Canada and the leeward Rocky Mountains southward through Texas (Fig. 3). Below normal zonal wind speed anomalies are indicated for the Southwest and Northeast U.S. The meridional wind speed anomaly forecast for mid-winter indicates mostly below normal values for much of the U.S. (Fig. 4). In summary, the CIC-CA wind speed anomaly forecast for DEC/JAN 2022-23 does not indicate unusually anomalous wind speeds for wind power generation areas with the possible exception of Texas. Fig. 1-2: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during December 2022. Fig. 3-4: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of zonal and meridional wind anomalies for the U.S. during January 2023. December/January 2022-23 solar forecast: Interestingly, the December outlook features a nationally below normal relative humidity (RH) forecast at 850 MB with strongest anomalies in California and the leeward Southern Rockies (Fig. 5). Implied is below normal cloud cover for much of the U.S. at 5,000 feet where most clouds producing precipitation occur. December could be an unusually dry month for the U.S. At 30,000 feet where cirrus could hinder sunlight intensity, the December 300 MB RH anomaly forecast is below normal across the Southwest U.S. especially California (Fig. 6). Sunlight intensity is at an annual minimum during DEC/JAN although in December sunlight amount is likely much above normal for solar power generation areas across the Southwest U.S. In January, the below normal RH pattern at both the low and high cloud etage continues across much of the U.S. (Fig. 7-8). Fig. 5-6: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during December 2022. Fig. 7-8: Experimental Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of 850 MB (low cloud) and 300 MB (high cloud) specific humidity anomalies for the U.S. during January 2023.  

Remainder of November 2022 Outlook Wind Outlook Discussion: Moderate to high wind is forecast for the next several days across Northern California as strong high pressure extends from southern Canada to the Great Basin and forces gusty north and east wind into northern California (Fig. 1). Mid-to-late this week and into early next week lighter wind is expected. Later this month, arrival of a Pacific upper-level low-pressure trough will spawn a period of increasing westerly wind across northern California. In Southern California, wind power generation is “moderate” today and Wednesday, due to increasing easterlies (Fig. 2). After the short-term events, wind generation is weak for the remainder of November. Wind generation is not a problem across Texas for mid-to-late November as at least moderate risk is present most of the time (Fig. 3). A moderate southerly wind will develop for early this week across Texas followed by chilly northerlies Monday night. A cold burst (with moderate north wind) for mid-to-late week is likely. Return-flow southwesterlies early next week followed by another cool outbreak featuring gusty northerlies around Thanksgiving is expected in Texas. Fig. 1: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Northern California. Fig. 2: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Southern California. Fig. 3: Wind generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for Texas. Solar Outlook Discussion: Near peak solar generation capability (for November) is forecast across California through the next week as high pressure dominates and skies are generally clear across the state (Fig. 4). However, the last 7-10 days of November feature increased exposure to Pacific westerlies across Northern California therefore increased cloud (and rain/snow) risk is likely. Consequently, state wind average for solar generation capability lowers for the last third of November. In Texas, despite sharp air mass changes, the solar generation potential is moderate through the next 10 days with 2 or 3 days close to ideal (Fig. 5). There may be 2 or 3 days when solar generation is suppressed more so than indicated in the 10-day forecast. In the extended-range, cloud cover may be near or above normal with wet weather risk due to a moisture fetch off the Gulf of Mexico. Fig. 4: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for CAISO. Fig. 5: Solar generation potential using all models through the next 15 days for ERCOT.