Panama Canal Climate Stays Dry Until JUN/JUL/AUG 2024

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Discussion: The ongoing Panama Canal drought continues. About 40% of worldwide cargo ship traffic is affected. Long-term rainfall deficits have worsened due to El Nino. The El Nino episode is strengthening and expected to peak over the next 1-2 months. During this time, dry climate continues as the DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24 rainfall anomalies for the Panama Canal vicinity indicate sparse amount (Fig. 1).  The MAR/APR/MAY 2024 rainfall anomaly forecast maintains the drought as marginal dry conditions linger (Fig. 2) and El Nino is weakening. Once El Nino ends and neutral ENSO generates (with a slight chance of a La Nina reversal), the JUN/JUL/AUG 2024 outlook promises above normal rainfall (Fig. 3).

Fig. 1: Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for rainfall anomalies in the Panama Canal region for DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24.

Fig. 2: Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for rainfall anomalies in the Panama Canal region for MAR/APR/MAY 2024.

Fig. 3: Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for rainfall anomalies in the Panama Canal region for JUN/JUL/AUG 2024.