Deep Tropics Stay Active Through November Mainly Out-to-Sea Events

Week-1 Valid October 24-30, 2022: Two events possible next week.

Discussion: The central North Atlantic tropical latitude into the Caribbean Sea is convection-active and tropical waves sufficiently intense to become a tropical system are expected. A north turn of any developing tropical systems is likely.

Week-2 Valid October 31-November 6, 2022: Central North Atlantic tropics threat.

Discussion: The central North Atlantic tropical latitude remains exposed to above normal showers and thunderstorm activity capable of generating a late season tropical cyclone. If so, any system turns northward.

Week-3 Valid November 7-13, 2022: Still active.

Discussion: Above normal convection in the North Atlantic tropical latitudes maintains an above normal risk of a late season tropical cyclone.

Week 4 Valid November 14-20, 2022: Any late season system travels northeastward departing tropics.

Discussion: The late season tropical cyclone risk continues. However, any system that develops immediately travels northeastward swept-up by westerlies aloft. The risk is mostly in the central tropics.

Week 5 Valid November 21-27, 2022: Unusually wet in the eastern tropics; late November risk in Caribbean Sea.

Discussion: An unusually wet late November forecast for the outer tropics, an area usually quite dry at this time of year. The Caribbean Sea also remains convection active and capable of producing a late season tropical cyclone.