Fig. 1: Quickly emerging -PNA pattern indicates an evolving upper trough in the West U.S. inspiring increasing south wind in the Central U.S.
Discussion: Late this week a rapidly developing negative phase of the Pacific North America (-PNA) index develops (Fig. 1). As a result, a vigorous upper trough develops in the West with greatest amplitude by Sunday over the Great Basin. In response to the upper trough, increasing southerly wind develops across the Central U.S. The increasing wind creates exceptional wind power potential production beginning Friday afternoon in the southern Great Plains (Fig. 2). At that time, wind increases to 15-30 mph from the southwest. Wind increases Friday night across Oklahoma with gusts to 40 mph possible. On Saturday, the aerial coverage of high wind expands. South to southwest wind in the 15-30 mph range with gusts to 50 mph cause >95% wind power potential production from northern Texas and the eastern half of Oklahoma to the Midwest U.S. (Fig. 3). By Sunday, very strong wind develops across the central and western Great Plains where sustained wind reaches >30 mph and gusts to >60 mph is possible. As a result, the >95% wind power potential production zone covers northwest Texas to the central Great Plains and Midwest States (Fig. 4). The excessive wind is likely to continue across the Central U.S. centered on Nebraska/Kansas to Iowa on Monday.
Fig. 2: GFS MAXRES wind power production (percent) forecast for Friday 4PM.
Fig. 3: GFS MAXRES wind power production (percent) forecast for Saturday 3PM.
Fig. 4: GFS MAXRES wind power production (percent) forecast for Sunday 3PM.