Lack of Wind for SPP/ERCOT in May So Far

North Atlantic Warm Hole Trough Cooling East U.S. Departs Temporarily
05/22/2023, 6:09 am EDT
Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Summary and Watching Southeast U.S. Coast for Development
05/26/2023, 8:44 am EDT
Show all

Fig. 1-2: Zonal and meridional wind speed anomalies for May 2023 so far are lighter than normal across much of the U.S.

Discussion: So far, May 2023 has produced below normal zonal and meridional wind speeds across the U.S. particularly across most of the SPP and ERCOT regions of the Central U.S. (Fig. 1-2). Causal to the lack of wind is a large area of high pressure over Western Canada extending to the Great Plains and generally weak low pressure in the far southern States to the East Coast (Fig. 3). A brief period of above normal wind power generation visits the northern Great Plains beginning tomorrow and lasting into Saturday as southerly wind on the back side of high pressure in the East U.S. increases (Fig. 4). However, GFS ENS is forecasting lack of significant wind for SPP and ERCOT returning during the medium range (Fig. 5-6).

Fig. 3-4: The upper air pattern for May 2023 so far and the high probability of significant wind power generation across the North-central U.S. into the weekend.

Fig. 5-6: Low probability of significant wind power generation returns for the medium-range according to GFS ENS.