Charts of the day: New trough west of Europe brings hot/dry ridge to Southern Europe as marine heat wave fades.
Discussion: The ECM ENS indicates an upper air pattern change across Europe heading into the middle of meteorological summer. Off the West Coast of Europe, an upper trough forms and amplifies, causing a marine heat wave (MHW) present since mid-spring to weaken. The heat release of the cooling ocean into the atmosphere causes a downstream upper ridge to amplify with hotter enhancement from North Africa.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid July 10-17, 2023: Southern Europe heat.
Discussion: Hot weather (mostly 90’s) spreads across Southern Europe next week as an upper ridge pattern amplifies and entrains Northwest Africa heat. Hot and dry weather also extends across the Russia spring wheat region. In-between, an upper trough triggers heavy rain over Turkey and the Black Sea region.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid July 17-24, 2023: Staying hot across Southern Europe.
Discussion: The upper ridge causing Southern Europe heat remains in-place. Wet weather in the Black Sea region eases and a warmer trend is indicated. Northern Europe to Northwest Russia is showery/temperate.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid July 24-31, 2023: The hot and dry focus is on Southeast Europe.
Discussion: ECM indicates a connection between North Africa heat extending northward into Europe ending July. The hot and dry focus in July is across Southeast Europe.