Executive Summary: The month of June 2023 produced another month of below normal wind speeds both from the zonal and meridional wind directions across most of the wind power generation zones of the Central U.S. Anomalous high pressure in this region is the culprit. The operational 15-day forecast also produces limited wind power potential across the Central U.S. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for August indicates a wind speed pattern reversal in the Midwest States as above normal wind speed is indicated. Most of the Great Plains to Midwest U.S. is expected to produce below normal wind speeds in September.
Fig. 1-2: The June 2023 U.S. zonal and meridional wind speed anomalies.
June 2023 review: Zonal and meridional wind speed anomalies were generally below normal across the U.S. during June 2023. Zonal (west-to-east/east-to-west) wind speed anomalies were below normal across most of the Northern U.S. especially the Upper Midwest to Northeast U.S. sector due to anomalous high pressure centered in Canada and extending the northern states (Fig. 1). Above normal zonal wind speeds were observed across Western Texas and Florida. Meridional (south-to-north/north-to-south) wind speed anomalies were below normal from Western Texas to the Northeast U.S. (Fig. 2). As a composite, the Central and Midwest U.S. observed below normal wind speeds during June.
Short-term forecast: The latest 15-day wind power production potential percent of normal forecast maintains the lack of wind across the SPP region across the Central U.S. (Fig. 3-5). Western ERCOT wind potential is above to much above normal through the next 15 days.
Fig. 3-5: GFS ENS 15-day wind power potential percent of normal forecast.
August 2023 forecast: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) forecast for August 2023 yields above normal zonal wind speed anomalies across the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic States (Fig. 6). The meridional wind speed anomalies are slightly biased toward above normal wind speed in the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region (Fig. 7). As a composite, above normal wind speeds are expected in the Upper Midwest/Midwest States and eastward to the Northeast Corridor coastline.
Fig. 6-7: The CIC-CA U.S. zonal and meridional wind speed forecast for August 2023.
September 2023 forecast: The first month of meteorological autumn is forecast to bring below normal zonal and meridional wind speeds to the Midwest U.S. (Fig. 8-9). High pressure in this region is the culprit. Elsewhere, exceptional wind speed anomalies are not forecast.
Fig. 8-9: The CIC-CA U.S. zonal and meridional wind speed forecast for September 2023.