La Nina 2020-22 is likely to produce a 3rd peak in November followed by a steady demise in early 2023. Most analog and dynamic model forecasts agree with this scenario. Neutral ENSO evolves by FEB/MAR 2023 and El Nino may follow for the second half of 2023. If El Nino generates later in 2023, a much different climate pattern emerges. Included wet risk for the Southern U.S. and northern Argentina/southern Brazil and a dry climate for India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Australia.

Slowly, the European Drought is easing. During the late warm season areas of beneficial rainfall have developed. More recently, rainfall occurred in the proper area to cause water levels of the Rhine River to increase dramatically and out of critically low levels.

Nationally, meteorological summer 2022 ranked 3rd hottest in the 1895-2022 climatology. Interestingly, the monthly U.S. population weight CDD (according to NOAA) are not nearly as impressive with June and July ranking 8th hottest of the past 20 years and August ranking 9th hottest for the same period. The explanation is twofold as modern-day hot summer would rank very hot in a cooler 128-year climatology. Note how the climatology warms when comparing the 30-year, 20-year and 10-year climatology.

West/Central U.S. drought is expected to expand eastward during Q4/2022. The strongest expansion is in the Mid-south/Gulf States based on the OCT-22 to FEB-23 Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast. The U.S. drought pattern is not a surprise given the 3rd year of La Nina coupled with drought-enhancing effects of warmer than normal mid-latitude oceans. The end of 2022 drought is likely the worst since 1956.