Tropical Storm Rafael reaches peak intensity in the northwest Caribbean Sea where upper ocean heat is plentiful and the upper shear pattern is light. Rafael maintains intensity across the warm waters of the Southeast Gulf tomorrow night. However, continued northwest tracking beyond the LOOP Current brings Rafael into cooler waters causing some weakening. On the weekend, Rafael encounters a vigorous shear pattern considerably lowering Rafael’s intensity.

Tropical Disturbance 97L located in the south-central Caribbean Sea is forecast to become a tropical storm traveling northwestward across Western Cuba Wednesday with a low confidence 4-5-day forecast track into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclone model intensity forecasts indicate tropical storm intensity and for the moment doubt hurricane risk. A northwestward traveling tropical cyclone into the Gulf of Mexico is rare.

As of 5:30AM EDT, Reuters reports 158 deaths associated with series of flash flood events centered on Valencia on the East Coast of Spain. The extreme rain began earlier this week, and additional rainfall is forecast over the weekend. The cause of this extreme weather event is related to the prevailing sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern across the North Atlantic.

The subtropical jet is energized by the transient MJO and scoops low latitude moisture into the Central U.S. piling to 7+ in. in Southeast Kansas over the next 7 days. The rain should help raise the Mississippi River where low water has returned for a 3rd consecutive year.